Celtics Future: Cap Situation Explanation

Kevin O’Connor, posting on celticsblog.com, details the Celtics cap situation, and the likely summer ruminations of Danny Ainge:

With a projected salary cap of about $60 million, Danny Ainge will have to maximize his cap space by figuring out the best plan of attack to get rid of KG and Pierce, renouncing the Celtics’ cap holds, and declining player’s option years. In order to get the most out of free agency, Danny has to go all out here.

Paul Pierce

Pierce would have to be traded, amnestied, or bought out with his $5 million buy out option. A trade is possible, but Ainge would be able to maximize the team’s cap space through amnestying or buying out Pierce. In that case, Boston would have $5 million more in cap room if Pierce were amnestied, so that makes most sense for the team.

 

Kevin Garnett

KG has already stated that his future will be closely linked with Pierce. With that in mind, if The Truth is let go by the team, that likely means that Garnett will retire. Retirement doesn’t immediately eliminate a contract though; in order to get his contract off the books, Boston would have to agree to a buyout with him. Years ago, Rasheed Wallaceagreed to a $1 million buyout with Boston, so a number like that seems reasonable for him.

Option Years

Terrence Williams, Shavlik Randolph, and D.J. White all have option years for the team.D.J. White’s option should be declined, but decisions on Williams and Randolph will be more difficult. From Ainge’s perspective, he will likely look at how Doc Rivers utilized Shavlik Randolph and find more value in declining his option. Terrence Williams has the flexibility to play both guard positions and small forward, so there is lots of value with him. However, crunching the numbers and roster spots, having Williams might be a tad bit redundant, so waiving all three of these players would make most sense for the team since it would open up another $3,082,272 in salary cap space.

Depending on what happens with Paul Pierce, the cap room would vary. If Pierce were bought out, the Celts would have a total salary of $51.2 million, but if he were amnestied, the team would have an even smaller total of $46.2.

Cap Holds

That previous number doesn’t include cap holds; Boston has loads of cap holds on players such as Chris Wilcox, Nenad Krstic, and Stephon Marbury. But now that the Celtics are under the cap, it would be wise to renounce their cap holds in order to amplify their cap room. (Note: Cap Holds are a bit complicated to explain, but this link explains everything quite well.) In short, if a player like Chris Wilcox is renounced, he would not be able to be resigned by the team.

If the Celtics were to renounce all of their cap holds, decline all three player options, amnesty Pierce, and buy out Kevin Garnett, they would have a total salary of $46,170,356. Factoring in the cap hold for the number 16 slot in the draft, that value would increase to $47,541,556.

Here is what the Boston Celtics’ roster would look like after all the changes:

 

Name, Position	Salary
Rajon Rondo, PG	$11,954,545
Jeff Green, SF	$8,965,000
Brandon Bass, PF	$6,450,000
Jason Terry, SG	$5,225,000
Courtney Lee, SG	$5,225,000
Avery Bradley, SG	$2,511,432
Jordan Crawford, SG	$2,162,419
Jared Sullinger, PF	$1,365,720
Fab Melo, C	$1,311,240
1st Round Pick Cap Hold	$1,371,200
KG Buy Out	$1,000,000
Total Salary	$47,541,556

With a projected cap of $60 million, Boston would have $12,458,444 available to spend before reaching the cap. That would allow the C’s just enough to sign a top player in free agency before using exceptions to sign other players to contracts.

Step Three: The NBA Draft

Option One: Draft a Big

With only Brandon Bass, Jared Sullinger, and Fab Melo as the bigs on the Celtics’ roster, the team is essentially forced into drafting a big. With the possibility of competing, drafting an NBA ready player might be the best bet. Lucky for Danny Ainge, this draft is filled with quality talent at the power forward and center positions.

A few NBA ready players that could be on the board when the Celtics are on the clock at pick number 16 are Louisville’s Gorgui Dieng, Duke’s Mason Plumlee, Kansas’ Jeff Withey, and Gonzaga’s Kelly Olynyk. Two other bigs that might need a little bit more development are Pittsburgh’s Steven Adams and France’s Rudy Gobert.

Each of those players bring a different skillset to the floor, which will be outlined in a CelticsBlog NBA Draft Player Preview Series this offseason, but all of them would fit Boston’s needs going forward. Many of them will be able to step on the floor and play immediate minutes much like Jared Sullinger did last season.

Option Two: Draft a Boom or Bust Player

Danny Ainge could prefer going for a player that has an incredibly high ceiling but also a D-League quality floor. Giannis Adetokoubo, a freakishly athletic forward from Greece, is the first name that will be on Danny Ainge’s board in terms of high-risk selections.

“GA” could pan out and be a star in the NBA, but with the lack of a core, can Ainge afford to miss on this draft? Drafting a player like Adetokoubo or Dario Saric, a power forward from Croatia, could pan out significantly in the long run, but the risk is there.

Solution: Be Safe, Go Big

Danny Ainge should repeat what he did in last year’s draft and draft a big man. You can never have enough bigs on your roster and this team is in desperate need of one, especially one that can rebound. Out of those names, Gorgui Dieng might be the best option. He’s a defensive center that can block shots and defend the paint. He’s a very good rebounder that actually boxes out, establishing position for boards. Dieng has developed a bit of an offensive game and has a 12-to-18 foot jump shot in his arsenal.

Regardless of what player Danny Ainge decides to draft, he can’t afford to miss on his draft pick this season. Being safe and drafting a player that you are almost certain will have a long NBA career is the best option.

For the rest of O’Connor’s post, click here: http://www.celticsblog.com/2013/5/6/4300564/into-the-mind-of-danny-ainge-the-post-big-3-era

 

Playoff Fragments from Sunday, May 5: MEM-OKC, IND-NY, Game Score Edition

Game 1: Memphis @ OKC

Forcing Memphis and OKC to play Game 1 on Sunday at noon CST, after both teams played the late game on Friday night meant two things for Sunday’s game: 1) Everyone was exhausted; and 2) There was next to no time to prepare. The 16-14 first quarter exemplified exhausted playoff basketball.  After the NBA gave every team two days in between each game over the first week of the playoffs, we get a sloppy Game 1 of the Conference Semifinals because it happened to be a Sunday (automatic doubleheader)

An Introduction to “Game Score”, via basketball-reference.com 

• Game Score: the formula is PTS + 0.4 * FG – 0.7 * FGA – 0.4*(FTA – FT) + 0.7 * ORB + 0.3 * DRB + STL + 0.7 * AST + 0.7 * BLK – 0.4 * PF – TOV. Game Score was created by John Hollinger to give a rough measure of a player’s productivity for a single game. The scale is similar to that of points scored, (40 is an outstanding performance, 10 is an average performance, etc.).

• Kevin Durant is on a mission.  35/15/6/1/2 is a great line.  This goes back to the lack of preparation time.  Not that Memphis will stop Durant, but they will contain him better than his 13 of 26 shooting in Game 1.  In 4 of the 5 games post-Westbrook, Durant has had a game score of 28 or better.  Last night’s was 29.3.

• Kevin Martin is in uncharted waters.  He’s played 552 career games, and yesterday was his 13th playoff game.  In the 7 games with OKC, he’s shooting 38.6%, but yesterday, in the biggest game of his career (they’ll keep getting bigger the farther OKC goes…), he shot 8 of 14 from the field, 3 of 5 from distance and 6 of 7 from the line.  His 8 free-throw attempts in Game 6 vs. Houston and his 7 yesterday are critical.

• Serge Ibaka needs to search his house.  His jumper is missing.  Without Westbrook’s balance to the offense, Ibaka went 4 of 13 in Game 6 and 1 of 10 in Sunday’s Game 1.  Maybe it was a case of tired legs.  Maybe it’s confidence.  Maybe his just misplaced it.

• If two of these three players–Martin, Jackson, Ibaka–step up in any given game, the Thunder have a great chance of winning.  On basketball-reference’s game score, here’s how they performed in Game 1: (Martin 19.3, Jackson 8.5, Ibaka 0.9).  That’s a combined 28.7.  Still, they needed some serious luck in the 4th quarter (Sefolosha’s play on Conley, Pondexter missing free-throws) to pull out the win.  For the rest of this series, let’s measure that number.  I’m guessing it’s going to take more than 30, probably closer to 35 from the Martin, Jackson, Ibaka trio for Oklahoma City to win.

• On the Memphis side, they played well, with the exception of Mike Conley, who could have used an extra day of rest after battling Chris Paul six times in the last two weeks.  The tired legs may have accounted for the 5 of 15 shooting (1 of 5 from range).  Conley doesn’t turn it over (only twice yesterday), but if one more three-pointer goes in early, maybe Memphis has enough of a 4th quarter lead to survive.  Conley posted his lowest game score of the playoffs (7.7, after averaging an 18 in Games 2-6 of round 1).  Maybe Conley hates Game 1’s.  His performance in Game 2 will be interesting to watch.  My hunch is he dominates the rest of the series with Reggie Jackson trailing him on most highlight plays.

• Quincy Pondexter gave Memphis exactly what they needed off the bench: shooting.  In 25 minutes, Pondexter hit 4 of 8, including 3 of 5 from distance, while Bayless hit 2 of 4 from the arc in 20 minutes.  Neither turned the ball over. If Pondexter and Bayless continue to give Memphis that bench production, I’m comfortable saying Memphis wins the series.

Indiana @ New York

• Roy Hibbert does not block shots.  He takes them.  He eats them.  He devours them.  He swallows them.  By extending his massive 7’3″ self arms going vertical (most of the time, which is the key to not getting whistled for a foul), Hibbert gave Carmelo, Felton, Chandler and the rest of the Knicks fits yesterday.  It’s amazing how rare it is to see a 7-footer dominate a game these days.  Hibbert sets the tone, and the Pacers followed.  As a Celtics fan, it was great to see the Knicks penetrate with such futility.

• Carmelo Anthony will need to adapt for the Knicks to win this series.  If he didn’t learn in Game 1, he won’t learn it at all: You can’t expect to dunk on Roy Hibbert.  A mid-range jumper will be mandatory for Melo, who has now made an astoundingly low percentage of shots in his last four games.  Melo is 35 for his last 110 (31.8%).  Melo’s game scores:9.8. 11.5, 12.2, 12.5.  Those are not the scores you need from your leader.  Melo will shoot the Knicks out of Round 2, if he doesn’t learn how to be a play-maker in the next two weeks.  Or at least stop short of the mountain that is Hibbert and bank in a 10-footer.

• Lance Stephenson: 14.7 game score, including 13 rebounds and 3 steals.  Stephenson is from Coney Island, and probably enjoyed showing his folks how far he’s come since high school.  I hoped these playoffs would put him on the national NBA map.  Looks like they might.

Read Jonathan Abrams‘ piece on Stephenson here if you haven’t.  Abrams delves into the psyche of two young hoops prospects who started having the ability to dunk in middle school, and hints at how that fact can negatively impact the career of an aspiring NBA player, looking at Ricky Davis (8th grade) and Lance Stephenson (6th grade).  If you’re unaware, I’m a huge Jonathan Abrams fan.  His oral history of the 1980’s Houston Rockets “The Team That Never Was,”  is award-winning.  Read Abrams in Grantland whenever you have the chance.

• David West: 12.5 game score, but an 8 of 15 shooting night and 20 points to 3 turnovers.  Paul Pierce and Jeff Green will tell you it ain’t easy taking care of the ball against the Knicks.  West’s ability to work from the elbow helps.

 

 

 

Monday’s Games:

Chicago @ Miami, Game 1, 7pm EST, TNT

Golden State @ San Antonio, Game 1, 1030pm EST, TNT