Celtics Gaining Momentum as Calendar Flips (Dec 27-Jan 3)

Russell Westbrook went on yet another rampage on Friday at the Garden, single-handedly delivering a road win for his Thunder. It would have been Boston’s fifth straight victory. Instead, it was a difficult to swallow loss. There was no defending Russ. Smart and Bradley took turns harassing Mr. Westbrook, but he may as well have been playing in his own driveway. The season has gone like that for Russ. He gets where he wants, when he wants. The three-point shooting is what made Friday so tough. Avery’s hand straight up in Westbrook’s vision did little to distract the flight of the ball. 45 points on 25 shots. 11 assists and 11 boards. Five of seven from deep. That fourth quarter.

So, instead of heading into Tuesday night’s match-up with the Grizzlies riding a six-game streak, the Celtics head in on the heels of their Christmas Day matinee win in New York. Five of their next six games will take place at the Garden. Boston has played 19 of its 31 games away from home. Only the Lakers (20) have played more.

Signs of Encouragement

• Boston is 17–10 with Isaiah Thomas in the lineup
• Isaiah continues to dominate, leading to East player of the week honors. In four games, not only did Thomas average 33 points and 6 assists, he did it while getting to the line at will. Free-throw numbers last week: 17–17, 8–9, 8–9, 6–8. His individual performance in Memphis was flat-out ridiculous. 44 points on 16 shots, 6 assists to 1 turnover. Clearly, Mike Conley is still working his way back into game shape, but my goodness. Despite the team’s ugly first half, IT brought Boston back and pretty much won the Memphis game by himself.
• Boston is 12–4 with their healthy starting lineup (Thomas-Bradley-Crowder-Horford-Amir)
• Of their 51 remaining games, the Celtics will be home for 29 of them.
• Kelly Olynyk is finally warming up, having connected on 8 of his last 17 from deep. Olynyk adding 16 points in 23 minutes off the bench Sunday was a big plus. When Olynyk and Jerebko are knocking down their jumpers and in rhythm, the bench can sustain Boston’s leads.

Upcoming Schedule

Tue, Dec 27: vs Memphis (20–13)

If last week’s game was any indication, this will be another physically-demanding, bloody match-up with playoff intensity. Hopefully Zach Randolph keeps his elbows away from Kelly Olynyk’s neck. Marc Gasol’s always heady passing is complemented by Marc Gasol’s newfound willingness to take a 24-footer (and make it 43% of the time!), but Brad Stevens was able to scheme Gasol into an 8 of 22 shooting night last week. Mike Conley is questioning the health of his toe as I type this, which would have a serious impact on the evening’s proceedings. Aaron Harrison isn’t quite as capable.

The Grizzlies are attempting to work Chandler Parsons back into shape after lingering knee problems have kept him out all season. So far, Parsons has shown quite a bit of atrophy in limited minutes. Parsons has the range and passing to fit nicely into their playoff hopeful-lineups, but he’s clearly in rough shape at the moment. He’ll sit out tonight (back-to-back), which makes you wonder if 12 minutes on a Monday lead to 0 minutes on a Tuesday, how many minutes can he play in April?

After beating the mighty Rockets (snuffing out Eric Gordon), Memphis lost in Orlando last night. Aaron Gordon discovered how to hit a jumper and the long arms of Biyombo, Ibaka and Gordon made life tough for the Grizzlies.

Thu, Dec 29: @ Cleveland (23–7)

Any game against the Cavs feels like a game to circle on the calendar. Early in the season, the Celtics went into Cleveland without Horford or Crowder, and managed to put up a solid fight, thanks to 56 points from IT and Avery, and some inspired Jaylen Brown activity. Though it’s only 1 of 82, this game will either cement Boston’s status next to Toronto as the early-season contenders in the East, or it will remind Celtics fans that we’re still one-trade away (Bogut?), despite the gaudy 12–4 record with all starters in place. No J.R. Smith means the lengthy and pesky defense of DeAndre Liggins, but less-than-ideal spacing for Kyrie and LeBron. Expect more Channing Frye, and hope that the perimeter defense can run the Cavs off the three-point line.

Fri, Dec 30: vs Miami (10–21)

On the one hand, Miami is 10–21. On the other hand, they’ve had next to no depth because of injury for much of the year. On the other hand, they don’t have enough shooting. On the other hand, all they have is Whiteside and Dragic on offense. On the other hand, they have Whiteside’s ridiculous length to disturb any penetration. What should be an easy win will be made more difficult by the the fact that its the third game in four nights and that the battle in Cleveland just took place the night before. Threes in the corner instead of drives in the lane, whenever Whiteside is on the court.

Tue, Jan 3: vs Utah (18–13)

From Whiteside’s enormous wingspan to Rudy Gobert’s gadget-arms. Same plan. Get the big men in foul trouble, or you better find ways to score outside the paint. Utah has been heralded as the next rising team in the West, and for good reason. The addition of George Hill was a smart one, adding stingy perimeter defense and steady shooting from the point, which provides Hayward and Gobert more room to operate the pick-and-roll. Like Whiteside, Gobert catches lobs at the 12-foot mark. It changes the game plan from a horizontal defense to a vertical defense. How do you defend that? Like a defensive back in football, you play tight and jab him at the point of attack. Easier said than done. Often leads to foul trouble. Rodney Hood has been rising over the past twelve months, with his 25-foot range. George Hill’s absence (toe) over the last 13 games has forced Shelvin Mack into bigger minutes. Despite injuries to Derrick Favors (lingering knee issues), Alec Burks (ankle), and Hill, the Jazz are fighting for home court in the West. Why? Rudy Gobert is absurd, and Gordon Hayward has help in Rodney Hood.

Celtics Regain Mojo In Time for Playoffs (Bizarre Game 82 win)

One more game. They play 82, and then the league gets chopped into two halves. Naismith’s peach baskets and the NBA into two halves of a peach. 16 teams in one basket, 14 teams left out in the cold rain and wind as spring enters. Those franchises waiting for the draft lottery in order to begin dreaming of better seasons to come. Of those 16 teams that move on to the bigger stage, only 5 or 6 are given something resembling a reasonable shot at claiming the title, while only three or maybe four are talked about as legit contenders. But forget about the talking and forget about June because the first round will start Saturday, and the Warriors and Spurs aren’t in the East, which means our beloved Celtics have a glimmer of hope. It’s very possible the Celtics don’t advance to the second round of the playoffs, while its also very possible that they do. Boston has played like a 55 win team and like a 35 win team, so it’s reasonable that they have won 47 as we make our way to Game 82.

Fast forward to halftime. The Celtics franchise honored their past greats from three different decades. Championship teams from 1966, 1976, and 1986 (let’s not worry about those mediocre ’96 Celtics or the misery-inducing 2006 crew.)

The 2016 Celtics were annihilated by Miami in the first 24 minutes. Down 20 points as soon as you could say “Joe Johnson Resurrection,” the Celtics groped around in the dark searching for the door to the present day. In that first half they were as lifeless as they’d been for the majority of the Hornets game, which had followed an ugly fourth quarter in Atlanta. Suffice it to say this was not the way Brad Stevens had imagined this critical three-game final week test would go. He hadn’t drawn up plays that ended in white flag waving or collapsing onto the parquet.

Finally, the mojo turned at the half. We were watching on delay, but I asked Natasha if we were dead or if we had a crazy run in us. She said 20-0 run, and then they went on a 20-0 run. Miami players started coughing up the ball due to the Celtics perimeter pressure that had been nonexistent in the first half. They were the ones looking beleaguered and antsy. Our threes were finally falling,

Boston held Miami to 5 points (franchise record) in the 3rd quarter, and a paltry 26 in the second half. By the time the 26-point comeback was complete, it seemed that the Heat had officially been snuffed out.

Sadly, so were the Hawks on this final night of the regular season, by a bitter Wizards team that would have been in the same fight for home court had Bradley Beal’s knees been happy. All four teams, Atlanta, Miami, Boston and Charlotte finished with identical 48-34 records, but due to various tiebreaker legalities, the Heat ended up with the 3rd seed, and Boston dropped to 5th, losing home court to the Hawks.

The season has been a genuine success so far, the young Celtics taking a solid step, advancing from 40-win playoff underdog to 48-win playoff possibility. Of course there are those who see nothing under a 55-win season or advancing to the second round as a successful season. Fan expectations are often unrealistic when considering a 17-title franchise, rightfully enamored with its own history. Still, climbing the ladder to contention is a process, and this season brought vertical progress in that climb.

Now on to the bigger goals. Showing that growth in late April and maybe even early May. The Sam Hinckie resignation in Philadelphia and the 35-win season in Orlando should remind Celtics fans to be grateful for genuine progress. After all, we watched those 2006 Celtics.

Playoff schedule:

4. Hawks vs. 5. Celtics

GAME 1 – Celtics at Hawks, Sat. April 17, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

GAME 2 – Celtics at Hawks, Tue. April 19, 7 p.m. ET, TNT

GAME 3 – Hawks at Celtics, Fri. April 22, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2

GAME 4 – Hawks at Celtics, Sun. April 24, 6 p.m. ET, TNT

GAME 5* – Celtics at Hawks, Tue. April 26, TBD, TBD

GAME 6* – Hawks at Celtics, Thu. April 28, TBD, TBD

GAME 7* – Celtics at Hawks, Sat. April 30, TBD, TNT

The Absence of Jae Crowder and Eastern Conference Playoff Positioning

The Celtics are in pain at the moment. Most of the pain resides in the upper part of  Jae Crowder’s right ankle. I’ve yet to read an in-depth profile of Crowder that takes the reader into the psyche of the new-found heart and soul of the Celtics, probably in part because he is not yet seen as an All-Star, mostly due to the fact that defense is really complicated to quantify. If putting the ball in the basket equals two or three points, how much credit goes to the individual defender that stops the shot from going up in the first place, without stealing or blocking the ball? How do you measure the impact of the man that can switch every screen and is strong enough not to get backed down by power forwards in the post? Draymond Green, Boris Diaw, DeMarre Carroll, and Jae Crowder. This is the era of versatility on defense, leaving pure shot-blockers out in the cold if they can’t slide their feet.

Every good team needs more than one individual stopper. The Celtics have three: Crowder, Marcus Smart, and Avery Bradley. This is why their defensive rating is still tied for 4th in the NBA, after a blowout loss to Oklahoma City. It helps that Brad Stevens’ schemes have emphasized individual player strengths (Amir Johnson’s pick-and-roll defense and rim protection, Kelly Olynyk’s mobility, Jared Sullinger’s lateral movement and bulk, Isaiah Thomas’ low center of gravity, Evan Turner’s switch-ability). It also helps that the Celtics were mostly healthy for the first 65 games of the year. Mostly healthy includes the absence of Marcus Smart for a month in December, Avery Bradley for a brief spell, and Jae Crowder for the last three games. In terms of actual games missed due to injury, the Celtics were the 8th healthiest team through March 13th.

The timing of the Crowder injury is rough for Boston. Crowder left midway through the Rockets game on March 11. The Celtics 14-game home win streak ended that night, as Harden had his way with the Crowder replacements. Small fowards Paul George, Kevin Durant and DeMar DeRozan all reaped the benefits of Crowder’s absence as the Pacers held on 103-98 at home, the Thunder annhilated Boston 130-109, and the Raptors pulled away easily on Friday night, after the Celtics put together a solid third-quarter, finally settling into some kind of rhythm, before the Raptors rained threes upon their heads in the 4th. Forward Jonas Jerebko, who adds another versatile defender and corner-three specialist to the roster, went down with an ankle/achilles injury mid-week. After losing Crowder and Jerebko, the Celtics’ depth is being seriously tested, and the lack of tenacity is evident. Jerebko is likely to return on Monday against Orlando.

On Sunday, the Celtics ended the losing streak, beating a sad Sixers squad behind much better performances from Evan Turner and Marcus Smart (both of whom have been given more minutes and responsibility since Crowder’s injury). Since returning from a month-long absence due to a strained shoulder, Kelly Olynyk is 5 of 22 overall and 1 of 10 from deep. As Olynyk works the rust off, Turner and Smart absolutely have to step up for the Celtics to keep from sinking into the lowest rung of the Eastern Conference playoff battle.

With a dozen games left, the Cavs and Raptors have all but wrapped up the top 2 seeds in the East.

The second rung of the East ladder consists of four teams:

• Atlanta Hawks (41-29) only one of their final 12 opponents are bottom-10 teams (PHX). Atlanta faces a suddenly warm Wizards-team three times in the final 12 games. Boston faces ATL in game 80 (April 9th)
• Miami Heat (40-29) without Chris Bosh, the Heat have played better lately, thanks to Whiteside, Deng, and a healthier Dragic. 4 of their final 13 games vs bottom-10 opponents. Three games left against Florida-rivals, Orlando. Miami is a strange team to game plan for, with several dynamic players, but not enough spacing without Bosh. Whiteside is learning how to take advantage of the roll toward the rim, with his insane wingspan.
• Boston Celtics (39-30) 3 of final 13 games vs bottom-10, final three games of season will determine seeding: (@ATL, home vs CHA and MIA). Boston desperately needs the spacing of Crowder, Olynyk, and to some degree, Jerebko. The grit of Crowder, Smart, and Bradley’s physicality, and Isaiah Thomas’ ability to finish in traffic, make them a serious threat.
• Charlotte Hornets (39-30) Torrid Hornets just finished a 6 games in 9 days stretch with a turd of a loss against Denver. Blame the schedule. Five of final 13 games vs bottom-10 teams. Charlotte, having won 9 of 11, and healthy with Big Al, Batum looking like they’ll finish in the 4 vs 5 match-up.

After these top 6, the three Midwestern teams: Indiana, Chicago, and Detroit are battling for the final two spots, with the Wizards inching closer to the pack by the day.

Of course, if Jae Crowder isn’t on the court within the next ten days or so, the Celtics chances of avoiding a first round series with Cleveland or Toronto will diminish. Of their next 7 games, only @PHX and @LAL seem like obvious wins unless the Celtics regain their confidence and get healthy quick.

Upcoming:

Monday 3/21: vs ORL

Wednesday, 3/23 vs TOR (I finally see a game in Boston this year!)

5-game road trip starting…

Saturday, 3/26 @ PHX

Monday, 3/28 @ LAC

Thursday, 3/31 @ POR

Friday, 4/1 @ GS

Sunday, 4/3 @ LAL