End of Season NBA Predictions: Eastern Conference Stretch Run

With 25 games left in the NBA’s overly-long 82-game season, we’re back in action after the restful All-Star Break. The trade deadline proved about as exciting as a Nets-Suns match-up. Tobias Harris will be a useful addition over time in Detroit, but he won’t impact Detroit’s possible series with Cleveland (1 vs 8).

Meanwhile, no the Boston Celtics did not make a splashy trade at the deadline. As a Celtics fan, I’m relieved they didn’t trade the Brooklyn pick for a short-term upgrade and a better shot at Toronto/Cleveland this year. Realistically, the Celtics need to win one playoff series with this new young core before they think about short-term improvements. If they have a chance to land Blake Griffin or Kevin Love, that would change the equation. Even if the Brooklyn pick turns into the 2nd or 3rd overall selection, the Celtics could certainly build around Simmons, Ingram, or Bender, each of whom could play power forward. If it ends up 4th or 5th (Damn you, Suns!), Ainge may be more likely to package that pick with other 1st rounders and other young Celtics. We shall see. The prospect of drafting three more rookies (they will have Dallas’ pick as well as their own and Brooklyn’s) would seem to make for an extra crowded training camp, and a very young team.

Eastern Conference

The Cleveland Cavs will coast into the playoffs, incorporating Channing Frye’s shooting off the bench. Kyrie and Love will allow LeBron to sit most of the final week of the regular season, with the top seed wrapped up.

Cleveland Prediction: 60 wins, 1st in East.

Raptor-Mania will ensue when the Toronto Raptors win their first playoff series in too many years. DeMarre Carroll will return from arthroscopic knee surgery by the end of March, in order to get up to speed by playoff time. Last year’s Raptors started 22-5, before crumbling in the 2nd half, but that won’t happen this year. Lowry’s conditioning and core strength are hugely improved, and DeMar DeRozan’s improvement has been well documented. Perhaps most importantly, the depth and defensive intensity of the Raptors bench will keep them ahead of the pack.

Toronto Prediction: 53 wins, 2nd in East.

The progress of these Boston Celtics has been rapid and consistent since acquiring PG Isaiah Thomas from Phoenix last February. After beating up on a weaker Eastern Conference to finish last season 24-12, Boston is now 33-24, on pace for 47 wins and home court in a first round series. Thanks to Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley and addition Amir Johnson, the Celtics are one of the more physical defensive teams in the Association. Their cohesion and intensity has led to the league’s 4th best eFG% against (48.1%) and they force the 3rd-most turnovers per game. Boston still struggles with the rare traditional post-up big man, which could become an issue if they face Valanciunas and Toronto in the 2nd round. If the Celtics hold on to the third seed, who will they face in the first round remains to be seen, as seven teams have a legit chance to finish 4th-8th, and they may all finish within three games of each other.

Boston Prediction: 48 wins, 3rd in East.

The Indiana Pacers will catch fire as their schedule softens during the stretch run. Most forget the Pacers started 12-5, with Paul George shooting the lights out in November. As the season wore on, Indiana wore down, and their December schedule snuffed out that early start. Fast forward to Friday night in Oklahoma City: Paul George’s fresh legs, Monta Ellis’ scoring, and rookie Myles Turner’s 6 blocks and timely outside shooting (stretch 5!) led to a statement win for the young Pacers. Considering where they were a year ago, the progress and future-positivity is a testament to Larry Bird’s vision, Frank Vogel’s coaching acumen, and a host of shooters surrounding the potent Paul George. Myles Turner’s energy and versatility will become obvious, but he may hit the rookie wall by April. The Pacers are an enigmatic young bunch, but can they win close playoff games?

Indiana Prediction: 47 wins, 4th in East.

The Chicago Bulls are injured. “We’ve heard that song before!” you shout. Yes, they need a new song, I agree. Jimmy Butler is out for another few weeks with a sprained knee. Mike Dunleavy has a creaky back, and has been missed on the perimeter. Derrick Rose can’t absorb contact anymore, so he avoids it, and is limited defensively. Still…Pau Gasol is Pau Gasol. Butler has become capable of lifting the Bulls all by himself (see Philadelphia game, 53 points on 26 free-throws). Derrick Rose can still score, and Doug McDermott and Nikola Mirotic can both shoot. There is enough here to keep the Bulls afloat, even if floating is not at all what they’d hoped for in November.

Chicago Prediction: 45 wins, 5th in East.

Chris Bosh’s uncertain health status, the up-and-down Goran Dragic, and the aging Dwyane Wade will make it tough for the Miami Heat to make a real run, despite their light last 15 games. Miami will land somewhere between 5th and 7th in the East. If Bosh is able to play at full strength, and Dragic gets his confidence and health back, the Heat could put a first round scare into Toronto or Boston, and would make life extra difficult for the Pacers.

Miami Prediction: 44 wins, 6th in East.

The Atlanta Hawks will fail to regain their swagger from last year as the lost season continues even after the trade rumors die down. Atlanta has the 3rd-toughest schedule remaining in the NBA. The Hawks will fall to 7th or 8th in the East in what will be an insanely-packed end of season battle between Atlanta, Detroit, Charlotte, and Washington for two spots. DeMarre Carroll’s absence and Jeff Teague’s struggles come into focus by season’s end. I wish things got better for Horford, Millsap, and Korver. What a great story they were last year.

Atlanta Prediction: 43 wins, 7th in East.

The Detroit Pistons are taking the shape of Stan Van Gundy. Let’s rephrase that. Stan Van Gundy, who has a round, slightly oblong shape, is a wise coach, and as GM, he is shaping his roster around his uber-talented center, Andre Drummond, and his very skillful point guard, Reggie Jackson. Detroit needed shooting. They traded for Marcus Morris to play 3/4. Morris is having a solid year. They had Jodie Meeks for balance off the bench. Injured for most of the year. They hoped Anthony Tolliver’s range would provide help. Not so much. So….Stan traded for Tobias Harris and Donatas Motiejunas. Motiejunas, whose back has been cranky all season in Houston, shot 37% from deep in 2014-15, and has an array of offensive moves. Harris is only 23, and is on a solid contract, which will look better as the cap imitates the ocean, and rises. Detroit needs to make the playoffs to prove to its fans that there is progress. The city needs it. The team needs it. It will happen.

Detroit Prediction: 43 wins, 8th in East.

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Left out of the Playoffs in this mad dash for the final three seeds: Charlotte and Washington.

Within going into much detail, both Charlotte and Washington will finish within three games of the 7th/8th bunch. Washington is the big disappointment here, as the Wizards hoped to finish with 48+ wins after some impressive playoff performances last year. Bradley Beal’s youthful knee issues and Nene’s old-fella knee issues have forced the Wizards into extreme small-ball lineups that haven’t worked out as well as planned. The addition of Markieff Morris from Phoenix can’t hurt, but they’ll need some time to build chemistry.

 

 

2015-16 NBA Preview, Southeast Division: A Heated Battle

The Southeast Division is deeper than its been in a long time. Since 2008, the Southeast has seen its best team fight for Eastern Conference supremacy. Dwight Howard led the Orlando Magic to 59 wins in 2008-09. The Magic and the Hawks won 59 and 53 games, respectively, in 09-10. As some NBA fans may have noticed, LeBron James joined the Miami Heat in the summer of 2010. For four years, the Heat torched the NBA.

Which brings us to last year. The Atlanta Hawks took their turn, winning 60 regular season games behind the pristine spacing and fluid ball movement of Mike Budenholzer’s offense. Before climbing to 46 wins last year, the Washington Wizards had not experienced much success in the last…well…generation. If we check the records, the Wizards have never won more than 46. The franchise used to be known as the Bullets. From 1963 through 1973, the Baltimore Bullets won 50+ games in three seasons. After a year as the “Capitol Bullets,” they became the Washington Bullets. They won 60 games in 1974-75, led by Elvin Hayes, Wes Unseld and Phil Chenier. That team ended up losing in the Finals. After seeing their win totals slip to 48, 48, and then 44 in the late ’70s, the Bullets surprised the NBA with their only franchise title in 1977-78, beating the Sonics in Game 7 that June. The following year, the Bullets won 54 games. Thirty-six years later, the Wizards are still trying to get back to 50 wins.

The Southeast has three of the East’s top five (in my opinion) this year. Let’s take a closer look.

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1. Miami Heat

Arrivals: Gerald Green, Amar’e Stoudemire
Departures: Michael Beasley
Retained: Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic, Luol Deng

Drafted: Justise Winslow (10th)

2014-15: 37-45

After a year in which injuries snuffed out any hope of moving on as seamlessly as possible after LeBron’s departure, the Heat managed to bring back Wade (one-year deal), Goran Dragic (5 yrs / $90m) and Luol Deng (exercised his player option). Goran Dragic is the creative off-the-bounce force that an aging Wade and Bosh need. Even Dragic sat out meaningful March and April games with injuries.

Here’s why I see the Heat finishing at the top of the talented trio of Atlanta, Washington and Miami: a 26 year-old named Hassan Whiteside. I wrote about him at length last February. (I’ll re-post the link soon. It’s a piece I think you’ll enjoy). His career so far has had more dips than peaks. His maturity and past work ethic has reasonably led many to abandon hope. His meteoric rise last year came with several bizarrely irrational moments of unprofessional behavior. Opponents will surely be game-planning to mess with Whiteside in order to get him into foul trouble.

On the other hand, here were his per-36 minute numbers in 1142 NBA minutes with Miami:

17.8 points, 15.2 rebounds, 3.9 blocks. 

In 23.8 minutes per game last year, Whiteside shot 63% from the field. Wouldn’t it be nice to have a 7’7″ wingspan?

Here are Miami’s “Ifs”:

• If Whiteside can manage to play 28+ minutes per game and stay healthy (mentally & physically)…
• If Goran Dragic can play 70+ games…
• If Chris Bosh can play 65+ games…
• If Dwyane Wade can play 55+ games…
• If Josh McRoberts, Amar’e Stoudemire, Gerald Green and Justise Winslow can provide enough stability, scoring and depth to keep the starting unit’s leads…

Then…the Heat will win the Southeast Division, and grab home court in the playoffs. Is it possible that Atlanta will win 55 games again (not likely) and quiet all the doubters? Or for John Wall to rampage through the league and for Washington to win 52+ games? Possible, but somehow I think Whiteside will work as hard as he ever has in order to cash in during the free-agency bonanza of July, 2016.

Prediction: 51-31, 3rd in East.

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2. Washington Wizards

Arrivals: Jared Dudley, Gary Neal, Alan Anderson
Departures: Paul Pierce
Retained: Garrett Temple, Drew Gooden

Drafted: Kelly Oubre (15th)

2014-15: 46-36

Like Muggsy Bogues and Jose Altuve, the Wizards will be small this year…at least that’s the intention. Following their playoff success, the Wizards have talked about continuing to extend the spacing around their Olympic sprinter, John Wall. The Wizards have Bradley Beal entrenched at the two, though he is determined to take more 3s (expect that to work out from both an analytics and intuitive standpoint). The combination of Otto Porter–who had a mini breakout in last year’s playoffs–and the hopefully healthy Jared Dudley (glue guy extraordinaire) give the Wizards enough options and length to go small. Is Otto Porter ready to take the balance of the minutes at power forward? The instinct would be to say, “Not at all.” On the other hand, the East is filled with power forwards who aren’t really power forwards, so the answer becomes, “Why Not?” Paul George can play at the 4? So can Otto Porter…maybe.

Vagabond Drew Gooden offers another big with more versatility than Kris Humphries.

Nene is aging rapidly which will weaken the interior defense. Coach Randy Wittman will play Gortat without Nene, which should free up Gortat’s offense on the pick-and-roll with more spacing.

Gary Neal may be an x-factor if the Wizards are truly intent on running with space. Neal was lost in the shuffle in Milwaukee and Charlotte, but remember his performance with the Spurs two years ago and one can imagine the Wall effect on him.

Some are wondering if the team can threaten in the East with expected slippage on defense. As the Rockets and Blazers have shown, a high-level offense that limits turnovers can make a team’s defense more effective than it might otherwise be. Limiting Nene’s minutes in the regular season would increase his chances of success against playoff bigs.

After years of taking cheapshots, Wittman has settled into a comfortable position, leading an exciting young contender. Will this be the year the Wizards get back to the 50-win plateau? I’ll say yes…just barely.

Prediction: 50-32, 4th in East

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3. Atlanta Hawks

Arrivals: Tiago Splitter, Tim Hardaway Jr., Walter Taveras, Justin Holiday
Departures: DeMarre Carroll, Pero Antic, Austin Daye, Elton Brand*, John Jenkins*
Retained: Paul Millsap

Drafted: (traded pick Oubre for Tim Hardaway, Jr.)

2014-15: 60-22

The Hawks were a great story last year. They played a beautiful form of basketball, and they won 60 games because they played with the mental clarity and purpose of a driven group. They were motivated, unselfish, and mentally tough. Now they are without DeMarre Carroll, who epitomized all of those adjectives. Of course, so did Kyle Korver, Al Horford, and Paul Millsap. Jeff Teague has gradually learned how to be all of those things as well. The Hawks didn’t get to the Finals. They lost to Cleveland in an ugly East Finals, after injuries took out Thabo Sefolosha and Kyle Korver, then temporarily took out DeMarre Carroll as well. There wasn’t anything close to enough offense for Atlanta to survive the defensive-unit the Cavs trotted out after injuries overtook them as well. Fast forward to the end of June (draft night). The Hawks knew they couldn’t afford both Millsap and Carroll.

Tim Hardaway, Jr. for the 19th pick. I’ve heard people criticize this Budenholzer choice. Here’s the context: Hardaway was playing in an NBA wasteland for the last two years surrounded by stagnant-bowel-movement-create your-own-offense. This year he will be surrounded with unselfish players which will make undoubtedly help make him better. He showed in college that he can hit a big shot; something the Hawks were lacking once Kyle Korver was injured and defensive-game plans were focused on him in the playoffs. Hardaway Jr may not be everything the Hawks needed but he gives them a better floor spacer than they could have found with the 19th pick. The Hawks know their window of opportunity is shrinking.

Adding Tiago Splitter was an under-the-radar, thanks-Spurs-move, essentially getting him for nothing because San Antonio needed the cap room to grab Aldridge. Splitter will fit in nicely with a similar-style of slashing and cutting offense, where the big man rolls to the rim. Splitter will also make the expected defensive rotations to enable Hawks defense to cause headaches.

The hunch here is that Justin Holiday, Sefolosha, and Hardaway Jr. can do a reasonable job creating a three-headed monster that approximates Carroll’s value. An added year of experience to the resume of German wunderkind Dennis Schroder, and the Hawks will be tough to beat again…but those 60 wins are way too much to ask.

Prediction: 50-32, 5th in East.

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4. Orlando Magic

Arrivals: C.J. Watson, Jason Smith                                                                                                                       Departures: Kyle O’Quinn Medicine Woman, Luke Ridnour

Retained: Tobias Wolff Harris                                                                                                                                               Drafted: Mario Hezonja (5th)

2014-15: 25-57

On April 12th, the Magic and Knicks set an NBA record for fewest points in a quarter on the shot-clock era (since 1954-55). 209,888 quarters had been played in NBA history before that fateful 2nd Quarter. The Magic and Knicks shot a combined 6-of-39 from the field. Further proof that irony’s cruel hand helps our planet spin, the game took place in Amway Arena on “Fan Appreciation Night.”

If you dare, here is the link:
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12671276/new-york-knicks-orlando-magic-combine-15-points-second-quarter

What does this tragedy foretell about the 2015-16 Orlando Magic?

That outside shooting will be a key ingredient in the progress of this club. The Magic have a pair of incredibly athletic young guards in Victor Oladipo and Elfrid Payton. While Oladipo’s shot stopped working in February (8 of 37 in 10 games), that was likely due to the energy he expends on both ends and the grind of the first half, leading up to the All-Star Break. He looked much better in March and April.

On the other hand, his backcourt mate Payton was a disastrous shooter all year, taking only 42 shots from behind the arc, connecting on 26%. At the free-throw line, Payton’s clangs were even more painful. With incredible quickness and footwork, Payton can get to the rim with ease, but made only 55% of his freebies. Young Elfrid may become the next Rondo, a player who impacts the game in his team’s favor DESPITE his shooting limitations. Like his namesake Gary, Elfrid’s long reach, great instincts, and toughness could potentially make him a lock-down defender once he adjusts to the new schemes Scott Skiles is installing.

The defensive prowess of Oladipo and Payton, with help from versatile youngster Aaron Gordon give the Magic an intriguing future as defensive menaces. Tobias Harris (re-signed 4 yr / S64m) and center Nikola Vucevic are offensively-skilled, but far from stellar defenders. Though this may seem less likely based on last year, Channing Frye’s ability to defend the pick and stretch the floor make him a better fit at times (rarely, but at times) than Vucevic, who is good in the post, but gets lost on defense.

Many people seem to think Scott Skiles is going to help lead the Magic back to respectability. The simple formula of young talent and a better coach will do that. I know he’s had some success in defensive efficiency, but unless Aaron Gordon takes a giant leap forward, and those guards suddenly develop range, I’m not sure they win more than 36 games. The East is improved and will be clogged with mediocre, but not terrible, 30-38 win teams.

Prediction: 35-47, 10th in East.

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5. Charlotte Hornets

Arrivals: Jeremy Lin, Nic Batum, Jeremy Lamb, Spencer Hawes, Tyler Hansbrough, Luke Ridnour
Departures: Lance Stephenson, Gerald Henderson, Noah Vonleh, Mo Williams, Bismack Biyombo, Luke Ridnour
Retained: Al Jefferson

Drafted: Frank Kaminsky (9th)

2014-15: 33-49

There just aren’t many Franks anymore. Frank Thomas retired. Barney Frank also retired. Frank Vogel is still around. Anyway, here comes Frank Kaminsky. Somehow, the Hornets chose him over Justise Winslow. I suppose they did desperately need shooting. They figured Kaminsky will be a stretch 4/5, which has become an increasingly important cog in modern roster-building strategies. Looking up at those “arrivals” and “departures,” there has been some serious turnover since last year.

The Lance Stephenson Experiment is over. Charlotte sent him to the Clippers for Matt Barnes and Spencer Hawes (swapping bad deals). Stephenson’s contract was set to expire after next year, assuming he declines the player option and plunges into the 2016 free agency madness. The Hornets found another partner in Portland. Mr. Everything, Nic Batum’s disappointing 2014-15 (injuries played a role) has one year left on his deal. Noah Vonleh (9th pick in 2014) for the future in Portland. Gerlad Henderson replaces Batum temporarily as a solid defender, though without the passing vision or range that Batum possesses.

Frank Kaminsky, Justice Winslow or a trio of picks (including Brooklyn’s 1st rd pick in 2016) from Boston?

The Hornets chose the long-range shooting of Frank Kaminsky over the versatility of Winslow or the future possibilities from Boston.

The Hornets are looking to make the playoffs, even if it means clawing their way to a 7th or 8th seed. This is what happens when a franchise loses consistently for 15 years. This is what happens when an NBA franchise tries to gain a foothold in the hotbed of college basketball known as Tobacco Road. You rent Nic Batum for a season and give up on a 6’10” 20 year-old power forward who played all of 250 minutes in the NBA last year.

It is very tough to gauge Vonleh’s potential but it was easy for Portland to accept the deal that sent Batum packing one year before he was likely to leave anyway. Another brutal year for the non-contenders out west means that the Blazers could lose enough this season to gain a top-8 pick in the 2016 draft.

And then what happens?

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is out for the year. Last year, the Hornets on/off numbers with MKG:

98.8 team defensive rating when MKG was on the court.

107.4 team defensive rating when MKG was off the court.

Goodbye, defense. Goodbye, playoff hopes. Another lost season in Charlotte.

Prediction: 30-52, 12th in East.

2015-16 NBA Preview, Central Division: Healing Cavs, Limping Bulls, and Young Bucks

One might wonder why the NBA still separates the conferences into divisions at this point. After Portland’s 51 wins granted them the 4th seed due to winning the Northwest (thanks to OKC injuries), despite finishing with the 6th-most wins in the West, the NBA altered the automatic 4th seeding formula, so that now a division title simply means having the best year out of the five teams closest to each other.

A division title has always been small consolation for a team that is bounced out of the playoffs in the first round. A chance for a team to raise a banner to the rafters. Geographic rivalries are not meaningless, but they mean less in West, where teams are further spread out, and where history doesn’t add that second layer of drama to the proceedings. When Denver visits Salt Lake City or Phoenix visits Sacramento, a divisional opponent isn’t much more than one game on the schedule.

What the divisions do, is provide a smaller group to write about. Five teams instead of fifteen at once. The Central Division is the deepest of the three Eastern Conference divisions and I expect they will finish in the same order that they did last year.

1. Cleveland Cavs

Arrivals: Mo Williams, The Immortal Sasha Kaun
Departures: Brendan Haywood, Mike Miller
Retained: Entire roster except for Tristan Thompson

2014-15: 53-29

The Cavs started 19-20 while they learned (or didn’t learn) David Blatt’s defensive principles, and while Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love learned how to play with LeBron. Center Anderson Varejao ruptured his Achilles after 26 games. The Cavs were fodder for the NBA gossip circuit. How could LeBron’s team be under .500? Maybe it would never work in Cleveland. Of course, trading for two defensive-minded players and one unconscious three-point shooter will help. The Cavs went 34-9 after acquiring Timofey Mozgov, Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith. They survived well-documented playoff injuries to Irving and Love and forced a 6th game with Golden State in the NBA Finals because of their defense, the undeniable rebounding of Tristan Thompson (averaged 13 rebounds per game in the Finals), and a certain superhero/athlete named LeBron.

LeBron is LeBron and LeBron is inevitable. Now that we have that out of the way, let’s talk about the questions surrounding LeBron in Northeast Ohio.

Tristan Thompson and his agent, Rich Paul, are engaged in a staring contest with the Cavs front office. After a brilliant playoff run in which Thompson repeatedly saved the Cavs, Thompson is being offered 5 years, $80 million (similar to Draymond Green’s recent contract), and is now waiting for the Cavs to blink.

*Update (Thompson blinked—and signed on October 21st, Thompson signed for 5 / $82m)

Thompson’s stock rose throughout the playoffs, with the Cavs transforming into a defensively dominant unit after injuries to Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving forced David Blatt to install Thompson and Matthew Dellavedova into the starting five. Thompson imitated Moses Malone (may he rest in peace) in his unstoppable offensive rebounding and displayed some mean pick-and-roll defense. Thompson’s reach, strength, and instincts were perfectly suited to ruining the hopes of Chicago and Atlanta, and eventually causing headaches among Golden State’s strategists. What do you do with a player who simply refuses to be boxed out?

Cavs power forward Tristan Thompson rebounds. (AP photo)

Assessing Thompson’s value is complex. With the financial floodgates set to open next summer, Thompson is demanding a max contract. Few offensively-limited players, if any, are ever considered for maximum-level slots. In addition, Kevin Love is back and healthy in Cleveland, having just signed a max deal for 5 years / $122 million. With LeBron, Irving and Love, the Cavs don’t have a max deal available.

The Cavs will be bringing three key players back from injuries. Aside from Love’s shoulder, Kyrie Irving (foot, knee), Anderson Varejao (hair/knee), and Iman Shumpert (wrist) are all recovering from ailments. On top of everything else, LeBron received an injection in his back within the last week.

Those questions, and the fact that it is increasingly common practice (thanks to the Spurs originally), to pace a team through the overly-long 82-game regular season, the Cavs won’t squeeze wins out of the calendar in the early going. Expect closer to 50 wins rather than 60.

Prediction: 54-28, 1st in East

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2. Chicago Bulls

Arrivals: N/A
Departures: Tom Thibodeau (coach), Nazr Mohammed*
Retained: Jimmy Butler, Kirk Hinrich, Mike Dunleavy, Aaron Brooks

Drafted: Clinton Bobby Portis (22nd)

First off, let’s ask an existential question: What the hell did Derrick Rose do to the universe? I mean, every NBA player has to get lucky just to find themselves in an NBA uniform. But after Derrick’s MVP season in 2010-11, the man has simply been cursed. He started camp in good spirits, after an off-season without having to rehab an injury. Within days of preseason practice, he gets elbowed in the eye and is out with an orbital fracture that requires surgery. Goodness gracious. To be a Bulls fan requires a heaping of sadness on top of your cereal every morning.

The Bulls will be an experiment in the power of the new coach. Fred Hoiberg. Tom Thibodeau is apparently hanging out in Salt Lake City with legendary former Jazz coach /octogenarian Jerry Sloan. Thibs was known for his relentless obsession with defense and regular season wins. He was unfairly given the old axe by notorious Bulls owner Jerry Reinsdorf after all kinds of drama last spring. Now the clean-cut Hoiberg (he makes Celtics coach Brad Stevens look edgy) takes over a roster that hasn’t changed much at all, except for the addition of big man Bobby Portis, drafted out of Arkansas.

At long last, the minutes are expected to be limited. The serious depth (when the team is actually healthy, which is rarer than a Morton’s steak) the team has assembled should enable Hoiberg to keep the minutes around 30 for his aging crew of veterans. Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson are all in need of leg replacement surgery. Yes, entire legs.

There’s no denying the talent on the roster. From Jimmy Butler to Gasol and Rose, to the grit of Noah and Gibson, to the offensive spark of Nikola Mirotic, Bulls fans have many reasons to be optimistic. Yet, how does a fan-base remain optimistic when tragedy so often befalls the team in the last five years? Maybe the Cubs can come up with some magic this October, and the Bulls can build off that victorious momentum. Or maybe the absence of the brilliant workaholic Thibs can allow some joy to seep into the locker room this year. Either way, the Bulls will win around 50 games. Hopefully they won’t be worn out by the end of April.

Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg kisses basketballs for good luck. (photo must have been a candid shot. No idea where it came from.)

Prediction: 51-31, 2nd in East

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3. Milwaukee Bucks

Arrivals: Greg Monroe, Greivis Vasquez
Departures: Jared Dudley
Retained: Khris Middleton

Drafted: Rashad Vaughn (17th)

The Milwaukee Bucks have length. Their name should be changed to the Bucksss. They play defense with arms spread wide, wingspans wreaking havoc on opponent pick-and-rolls by switching everything with a deep roster of athletic swingmen.

Jabari Parker, returning from an ACL tear that forced him to miss the final 57 games of the season, may eventually become a great scorer in the NBA, but three things will keep him from making an significant impact this year. First, Khris Middleton’s range. Second, new arrival Greg Monroe’s post game. Finally, Parker’s lack of outside touch will restrict his time.  Like Giannis Antetuokuompo, Parker is a great slasher from the wing. Parker is stronger than most SFs and quicker than many PFs. If both improve their range to the corners, the Bucks can become true contenders.

John Henson’s recent extension (4/44) will look good starting in year two. Henson’s shot blocking at the rim will be badly needed next to Greg Monroe, who is allergic to shot-blocking and jumping more than nine inches off the ground.

All of this discussion and we’ve yet to mention extra-long point guard Michael Carter-Williams. MCW arrived last spring, with Miles Plumlee and Tyler Ennis, in a 3-way trade that sent Brandan Knight to Phoenix. Knight is a true scoring point. Carter-Williams does everything but score. Much like coach Jason Kidd in his playing days, but with weaker passing skills and yet-to-be-proven leadership, MCW is a force on the glass, a decent post-up option, and a very good defender. Can he lead an offense? Can he find something resembling a jumper? Last year, MCW shot 23.5% from deep. Unsightly.

It was a big gamble for Milwaukee, who is hoping they can rebuild MCW’s shot from the ground up. Not surprisngly, athletic, young players with extra long arms often struggle to shoot. The Bucks future depends on the shooting touch of MCW, Parker, and Giannis.

Also, I miss Larry Sanders. I will never forget that night he roamed the TD Garden paint waiting for any Celtic to attempt a lay-up or dunk. Rondo was looking over his shoulder anytime he crossed inside the three-point arc.

The Milwaukee Bucks starting five with their long arms hidden behind their backs. (Media Day photo)

Prediction: 44-38, 8th in East

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4. Indiana Pacers

Arrivals: Monta Ellis, Chase Budinger, Jordan Hill
Departures: David West, C.J. Watson, Roy Hibbert
Retained: Lavoy Allen, Rodney Stuckey, Shayne Whittington

Drafted: Myles Turner (11th)

2014-15: 38-44

Goodbye, Roy Hibbert. David West takes the veteran’s minimum to play in San Antonio, leaving $12m on the table for this year. Everything they say about David West being humble, being an awesome teammate, and being genuine seems true to me. The guy wants to win a championship and so he joins the franchise known for selflessness and teamwork. Go West, young man. Go David West. Out with Hibbert and West and the core interior defenders of recent Pacers contending teams. In comes Monta. Talk about a change in identity. Now Paul George will have some offensive help, but the looks that Dallas’ offense enabled for Monta will be harder to find in Indiana. Paul George might be primed for a big year, and George Hill can knock down a three-pointer, but Lavoy Allen and Jordan Hill will certainly not cause any double teams. Frank Vogel has talked openly about playing Paul George at power forward. On paper this makes sense. The Pacers simply don’t have a power foriward other than Lavoy Allen. Rookie 7-footer Myles Turner doesn’t turn 20 until March, and though he took a bunch of three-pointers in college, he didn’t hit many (27%). He also grabbed only 6.5 rebounds per game (22 min). He is so clearly NOT ready to play more than a handful of minutes a night in the NBA. And yet he may this year…

Good luck, Paul George. The wisdom of the elders is gone. It has been replaced with an aging shooting guard who was never a great shooter (Monta). Things may start slowly…

Prediction: 39-43, 9th in East

5. Detroit Pistons

Arrivals: Ersan Ilyasova, Marcus Morris, Aron Baynes, Danny Granger, Reggie Bullock
Departures: Greg Monroe, Caron Butler, Shawne Williams
Retained: Reggie Jackson, Joel Anthony

Drafted: Stanley Johnson (8th)

2014-15: 32-50

What you might remember from last year’s Pistons team is the fact that Josh Smith was released (contract eaten) mid-year. The team started 5-23. A team that many were predicting to win 40 games. They were 18 games under .500 before Christmas. The funny thing? They finished 18 under. Which means they were actually pretty decent for the final two-thirds of the season…once they tossed Josh Smith to the winds (don’t worry, Smith found himself playing very meaningful playoff games with Houston and is now on another contender–the Clippers.

What can the Pistons do this year? The mid-30s seems about right. Andre Drummond remains enormous, yet not quite dominant enough, thanks in part to abysmal free-throw shooting, and a lack of help around him. Small forward Stanley Johnson has everyone intrigued. Point guard Reggie Jackson can put up solid numbers, but this will be his first attempt at leading a team from opening night. The Pistons will miss Greg Monroe’s steady post play. Aron Baynes has a nice accent, but his post-play is more awkward than steady.

Prediction: 35-47, 11th in East

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