Thinking about the NBA since Gerald Henderson stole the ball. Sharing thoughtful journalism, spreading fandom, and examining societal issues through Sport. Searching for empathy in hidden places. @darkoindex
We have arrived…sort of. Welcome to the halfway mark of the NBA season. 41 games. All 30 teams have played between 38 and 43 games, so we’re as close to the midpoint as we’ll get. The All-Star Break is a few weeks away. As always at this time of year teams are dealing with multiple injuries and only three (Golden State, San Antonio, and Cleveland) have anything resembling a firm grasp of their playoff situation. That leaves 27 teams jockeying for 13 other playoff spots. In reality, more like 20 teams for 13 spots, which is a few more than usual this year.
This stretch of the season (six weeks between New Year’s and the All-Star break) is by far the most grueling. In an ideal NBA-schedule-world (70-game season), these six weeks would include 3 games per week maximum; 18 total). Instead, many teams will play 22 and 23 games in this stretch. Not only is the product on the court worse, injury-risk becomes magnified. Players are usually battling through injuries at this time of year as is. Back-to-backs and 4-games-in-6 days stretches compound things. As the NBA moves fully into a faster-paced, ball-movement-focused game, and as coaches look toward maintaining the health of their stars and restricting playing time to 32-34 minutes per game, the mid-year January stretch becomes a test in endurance, depth and the luck of health.
Making this time of year even more difficult to examine is the parity that exists throughout the NBA. As of January 17th, 10 teams—1/3 of the Association—are within four games of the .500 mark. Seven of those 10 teams are in the East. With few teams in obvious selling position as the trade deadline nears, questions abound. We have one month for teams to figure out how likely they are to make the playoffs (and, in the East, how likely they are to make the top 7 in order to avoid Cleveland in the first round).
It’s time to take a stroll through the Association. We’ll go from the bottom to the top, splitting this into three parts. Here’s the bottom third, by current win-pace.
Philadelphia 76ers-Gypsies (pace: 10 wins)
We can only hope that the 76ers actually lose 76 games. Since entering the NBA in 2010, point guard Ishmael Larry Smith (17 ppg, 7.8 apg, 3.4 rpg after trade to PHI) has now played on 9 teams. We can only hope Ish will add four more teams to his resume, and set the NBA record with 13 before retiring.
Los Angeles Lakers (pace: 18 wins)
The Lakers have won 4 of 10, but as the season progresses, they have to ensure they finish with a bottom 3-record in order to keep their top-3 protected lottery pick from the Sixers. The Lakers will be sure to sit any of their useful veterans (Lou Williams, Roy Hibbert, and possibly create fake-injuries for Jordan Clarkson or Julius Randle in order to ensure those losses. What a wonderful way to go out, Kobe…in a tank.
Brooklyn Nets (pace: 22 wins)
Fire everyone! That usually solves all your problems. Celtics fans remain eternally grateful, sending pickled Russian delicacies every holiday to Brooklyn’s infamously wealthy Russian owner. The lingering question: Will Brook Lopez and/or Thaddeus Young be traded in the hopes of acquiring a pick in this June’s draft?
Phoenix Suns (pace: 26 wins)
The Suns may actually threaten the Lakers for the bottom 3. They play Los Angeles twice in late March in what will certainly be fiercely contested games to see which can score fewer points. Eric Bledsoe’s knee injury means he gets to sit out the rest of this tortured season in Arizona. Perhaps Jeff Hornacek regrets that fact that misguided owner Robert Sarver (damn millennials!) didn’t fire him last month when Hornacek’s assistants were let go.
Minnesota Timberwolves (26 wins)
Karl-Anthony Towns has a lock on rookie of the year, thanks in part to the tutelage of a certain Mr. Garnett. In a fascinating Q&A between coach Sam Mitchell and NBA writer Britt Robson you begin to understand why the Wolves shoot the most long two-pointers and fewest threes in the NBA right now. There’s no denying Towns’ polished game at the moment. Meanwhile, the rest of the young Wolves core (Wiggins, LaVine, Rubio, and Mohammed) need a year of pure shooting instruction (and leg lifting) before Minnesota has a chance to fully arrive. One more top-seven pick seems like a prize, but with such a young team, the Wolves might be wise to dangle the pick and a role player for a true stretch four like Ryan Anderson.
New Orleans Pelicans (pace: 27 wins)
Sadness comes in many shapes and sizes, and with all kinds of disguises. Meet the 2015-16 New Orleans Pelicans, the only team in the NBA that wishes the season were 90 games long. Instead, Ryan Anderson will be discussed until February 18th in nearly every trade rumor. A truly injury-riddled November doomed the spring for Alvin Gentry, Anthony Davis and friends.
Denver Nuggets (pace: 30 wins)
Two and a half years after firing George Karl despite a 57-win regular season, the Nuggets appear firmly entrenched in the bottom of the Western Conference. The time since has taught us: a) the overall value of Andre Iguodala; b) the effect of alcoholism on Ty Lawson’s career; c) Andre Miller will always be a wise and steadying influence on a roster.
Milwaukee Bucks (pace: 34 wins)
Pundits often talk about the most difficult step a team can make in the NBA is going from good (50+ wins) to being a legit contender. But what about going from decent (35-44 wins) to good (47-52)? With increased parity, that step is becoming increasingly tricky. The young Bucks (average age: 25) have struggled to incorporate post-presence Greg Monroe and compensate for the loss of bench depth (Dudley, Zaza). But here’s something more alarming: They won 41 games last year, despite finishing 8-18 after trading for Michael Carter-Williams. The future of the Bucks (Giannis, Parker, MCW) and the Wolves will both hinge on long-range shooting.
Portland Trail Blazers (pace: 34 wins)
The post-Aldridge/Batum/Mathews Blazers have held things together with remarkable poise for such a young group. Allen Crabbe’s rise has helped the Blazers survive until now, but the team’s youth will make their modest success hard to sustain. Like the Kings, the Blazers have multiple offensive options, but struggle to play enough defense to win close games against the league’s better half. Unlike the Kings, the Blazers aren’t supposed to be winning 30+ games this year.
Sacramento Kings (pace: 35 wins)
Vivek, Vlade and DeMarcus are praying for an 8th seed. The honor of being decapitated by the Warriors is too alluring for a franchise that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2006 and is about to wake up from their Sleep Train Arena slumber and move into the Golden 1 Center in November. Finishing 8th is a possibility if these things happen: a) Derrick Favors remains somewhat injured (backs are tricky) in Utah; b) Sacramento can win at least 2 of their 3 remaining games with Portland; c) Rondo and Cousins find a channel to their best selves for the 2nd half of the year…they did last night by ending the undermanned Clippers’ 9-game winning streak at Staples Center.
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Next up: Teams 11-20 (Most of the Eastern Conference).
The NBA’s Atlantic Division will be mostly hideous once again this year. Though two of the Atlantic’s five teams are trending in the right direction, one of those teams — New York Knicks — won 17 games last year, which makes it nearly impossible not to improve. The other upward-trending team is the Boston Celtics. We’ll get to them in a moment. First, let’s consider the idea that the Philadelphia 76ers may be the second team in NBA history (we can’t forget those expansion Vancouver Grizzlies) to win 18 games and not be expected to win 20 or more the following year. Not that Jahlil Okafor won’t be helpful, just that few other players on the team other than Nerlens Noel will be. But before we inspect the wreckage that is the Sixers roster, let’s start at the top:
1. Boston Celtics
Arrivals: David Lee, Amir Johnson, Perry Jones Departures: Brandon Bass, Gerald Wallace, Luigi Datome Retained: Jae Crowder, Jonas Jerebko
Drafted: Terry Rozier (16th), R.J. Hunter (27th), Jordan Mickey (33rd)
2014-15: 40-42
Combine the win totals of our beloved Boston Celtics over the last two years (25 wins in 13–14; 40 wins last season) and you get 65 wins, one fewer victory than they recorded in that franchise-rejuvenating 2007–08 championship season. This year, if they can climb to 46, realistic Celtics fans should be happy.
The Celtics have 15 NBA-level players on their roster. Sadly, they have only one–5’9″ Isaiah Thomas–who might be considered a top scoring option. However, unlike many teams, the Celtics have four key ingredients, which, with good health, will enable them to win more games than they probably should:
A roster full of defensive-minded, mentally tough, mostly unselfish teammates
An analytically-inclined front office
The Atlantic Division (12 of 82 games against the lowly Sixers, PG-less Nets, and confused Knicks)
Coach Brad Stevens
This means the Celtics will once again be piecing together lineups based on match-ups, tossing up tons of analytically-minded shots (except for the range-less Evan Turner, and the strangely consistent Tyler Zeller), and playing physical defense, while pushing the pace whenever possible. With Amir Johnson on board, they now have an interior defender who can defend the pick-and-roll and the rim better than anyone they’ve had since Garnett was traded to Brooklyn.
The staff hopes 33rd pick Jordan Mickey can learn the screen-setting, pick-and-roll ropes from Amir. The Celtics are also hoping 27th pick R.J. Hunter can eventually stretch the floor and create spacing for Isaiah Thomas and Marcus Smart. Hunter has the savvy, length and court-vision to take on a bigger role in the coming years, if he is able to gain strength and defend both 2s and 3s.
This year, minutes will be hard to come by, with a glut of guards, a heap of small forwards, and one too many power forwards. Brad Stevens has been seen perusing Toys R’ Us hoping to find a pair of 12-sided dice to roll at random.
In crunch time (soon to be sponsored by Nestle, I’m sure) Celtics lineups are likely to include Isaiah Thomas and Amir Johnson.
The other three spots could go to any combination of:
In the frontcourt: David Lee, Tyler Zeller, Kelly Olynyk or Jared Sullinger (Sully is currently on the fringes of the 10-man rotation in preseason) alongside Amir. Of the three, Olynyk provides the best spacing and the worst defense. Zeller provides 15-footers, decent defense against the smaller centers and an ability to beat 7-footers down the court, and Lee provides passing, some post-play, and solid defensive rebounding. Sullinger appears to be the odd-duck out in a frontcourt that will only fit four on a given night. However, with a Lee injury or an Olynyk cold spell, Sully should get a solid look at some point.
Two of the following players at the wings: The Swedish Bird, aka Jonas Jerebko; the wonderfully dread-locked and eminently likable Jae Crowder; the versatile Evan Turner; the steady-but-unable-to-create Avery Bradley; the developing Marcus Smart, or the enticing R.J. Hunter.
Practice time might be more useful than actual games in the early going. The roster is very young, and with three more 1st rounders possible in 2016, getting younger unless a trade materializes. How the roster takes shape early could mean packaging some future picks and role players for a genuine scorer in the hopes of making a splash in the playoffs.
Isaiah Thomas is a fearless scorer, finishing at the rim more effectively than any 5’9″ guard should.
“Over the course of the 21 games he played for the team, Thomas’ presence elevated the team’s offensive rating to 109.2 in the 545 minutes he was on the floor — a mark that would have been the third best in the league if it held up for an entire season.”
Though that mark illustrates just how effective and important Thomas was to the Celtics turnaround last year, it does come with two caveats: 1) the league had no game plan for this new version of the Celtics initially; 2) the average competition in that set of 21 games was especially weak on the defensive end. Still, the point is clear: Thomas transformed the offense. With IT initiating, the spacing that Stevens so emphasizes became possible.
Stevens has to build off the momentum of last year’s 24-12 finish. 44-47 wins is within reach if Amir and Lee can stay healthy, and if Smart and Hunter can progress quickly.
Also, RIP Gigi.
illustration via pianetabasket.com
Prediction: 46-36, 6th in East* (division champ not given top 4 seed anymore)
2. Toronto Raptors
Arrivals: DeMarre Carroll, Cory Joseph, Bismack Biyombo, Luis Scola, Luke Ridnour Departures: Amir Johnson, Lou Williams, Landry Fields*
Drafted: Delon Wright (20th)
2014-15: 49-33
Amir Johnson has been an analytics darling for a few years. He’s even started hitting three-pointers. The Celtics took advantage of his injury-depleted status and signed him to a two-year deal for a few reasons.
he sets great screens
he defends the rim with physical defense and arms that extend to find the ball more often than not
he takes whatever is given to him (even if it is re-gifted)
In other words, he’s really important in all the ways that obsessive fans love and playoff teams need.
Which brings us to the Toronto Raptors, a team that came unglued after the All-Star break last year. Toronto rode Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, with helpful contributions from Amir, Greivus Vasquez, and Lou Williams to a 25-8 start. A record that was greased by East opponents. As happens to many East teams, the record evens out after a few trips West.
Ultimately, Lowry’s creaky back acted up, Amir missed time, and the lack of defense came back to haunt the Raptors. Now they are missing their glue guy, but signed a different type of glue guy: DeMarre Carroll. Raptors announcers will now have to differentiate between DeMar and DeMarre. Good thing DeMarcus Cousins is in Sacramento and DeMarco Murray plays a different sport. It’s all very demoralizing. Carroll was one of my favorite stories last year. Entering the season, few fans outside of Atlanta recognized the solid season Carroll put up in 2013-14. Under Coach Mike Budenholzer, every member of the Hawks was put in a position to succeed, with rapid ball movement and individualized player development turning Carroll into that essential component of a great team: the 3-and-D small forward. Carroll’s three-point percentage increased from 36.2 to 39.5. He parlayed that into a sweet contract with the Raptors. It will be interesting to see if Lowry, DeRozan, and Valanciunas are able to come anywhere close to giving Carroll the looks that Atlanta’s offense was able to provide him.
Raptors starters: DeMarre Carroll, Kyle Lowry, Jonas Valanciunas, and DeMar DeRozan. Apparently power forward is still being decided. (photo via Toronto Star, taken at Raptors Media Day 9/29/15)
Coach Dwayne Casey prays for center Jonas Valanciunas to make the leap from awful defender to tolerable defender, and prays for health from his primary everything, Sir Lowry. With the Celtics, Magic and Knicks all slightly better this year, the easy wins will be harder to find outside of Philadelphia.Bismack Biyombo has elite shot-blocking skills, but has yet to prove he’s ready for more than spot minutes. If Biyombo can set screens and catch lobs, that would help fill the whole Amir Johnson leaves behind. Cory Joseph is in to replace the wily Grievis Vasquez. Joseph has higher upside, but is less of a shooter than Vasquez. Luke Ridnour, apparently, will be in the league for one more year in case catastrophic injuries hit, though one has to wonder if the D-League would offer a better option in that case.
Prediction: 45-37, 7th in East
3. New York Knicks
Someone has to finish third in the Atlantic, so let’s say the Knicks will. Phil Jackson acquired actual NBA players to fill some of the many gaps that existed on last year’s Knicks roster.
Arrivals: Arron Afflalo, Robin Lopez, Kyle O’Quinn, Derrick Williams, Lance Thomas Departures: Tim Hardaway Jr., Jason Smith, Andrea Bargnani*
Drafted: Kristaps Porzingis (4th)
2014-15: 17-65
The 4th overall pick in the NBA Draft was Kristaps Porzingis. Poor Zingis, no more! The Latvian sensation will be making $4.1m in his rookie season, which is almost enough money to buy a condominium in Park Slope. Porzingis will either become a poor man’s Dirk, or perhaps a rich man’s Radmanovic. Either way, Knicks fans will prefer him to Bargnani the Terrible, who somehow received an offer (veteran’s minimum) from the Bushwick Nets.
Kristaps Porzingis throws out the first pitch at Citi Field. He may be called upon as a reliever in the NLCS. (photo via NY Post)
Phil says that Robin Lopez allows Carmelo to play PF, though Carmelo defending actual 4s would be ugly. RoLo’s energy may not be sustainable for more than one more year.
Depth charts currently list Derrick Williams ahead of Kristaps at PF. Derrick Williams is not Derrick Coleman. Kyle O’Quinn Medicine Woman will be backing up both lottery mistakes. Kristaps should see more minutes as the season wears on and there is little left to lose.
Jose Calderon continues to imitate a decent bottle of red wine. He’s aging without a problem, but nobody seemed to notice him to begin with. Afflalo is a solid shooting guard if healthy, though he is a questionable choice for a team that doesn’t have enough youth.
Now that the Knicks have actual players, does this mean Derek Fisher actually has to coach, instead of just stand there with his arms crossed with that stoic expression?
Also…Carmelo’s knee.
Prediction: 30-52, 12th in East
4. Brooklyn Nets
Arrivals: Thomas Robinson, Steve Blake, Shane Larkin, Wayne Ellington, Willie Green, Andrea Bargnani Departures: Mason Plumlee, Deron Williams Retained: Brook Lopez, Thaddeus Young
Drafted: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (23rd), Chris McCullough (29th)
2014-15: 38-44
The Brooklyn Nets are a sinking ship, sinking into the East River. The Brooklyn Nets are a playground hoop without a net…or even a chain…in Bed-Sty. The Brooklyn Nets are without a starting point guard, though they will call Jarrett Jack their point guard, and Barry Shane Larkin they’re back-up point man. After trading for Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, fans envisioned at least one deep playoff run. Instead, they got a second round dispatching by the Miami Heat in five games after squeaking out a series win over Toronto. Then they received six games of playoff basketball against Atlanta. Those may be the last playoff games the Nets see for a few years.
Brook Lopez, Thaddeus Young, and Joe Johnson remain (for now) on a rudderless vessel. The ancient wisdom of Garnett has been returned to the Minnesota hinterlands, where he will teach the young pups interior defense, while Pierce has followed Doc back to his own childhood home, giving the Clippers another boost. The point guard once known as Deron Williams is in dysfunctional Dallas, where Nowitzki plays on his very last leg. I have a Mavs-fan friend who has named his fantasy team “Fuck DeAndre.” Enough said about Dallas’ situation.
Who surrounds Coach Lionel Hollins, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson?
Coach Hollins, center Brook Lopez and forward Joe Johnson wait patiently to find out who their teammates will be. (photo via Getty Images, as you can see)
Thaddeus Young and lots of question marks. Let’s leave it at that. The Brooklyn Nets? At least Bojan Bogdanovic isn’t afraid to shoot.
Celtics fans will be watching the lottery in May. They own Brooklyn’s pick (2016, as well as pick-swap rights in 2017, and the Nets pick in 2018) thanks to that KG/Pierce trade.
Prediction: 25-57, 14th in East (and a mid-season trade of Joe Johnson for a draft pick)
5. Philadelphia Gysies (76ers)
Arrivals: Sauce Castillo (originally Nik Stauskas), Carl Landry, Jason Thompson Departures: Thomas Robinson, Jason Richardson*
“I was not going to take the job without the four years (guaranteed),” Brown said about his contract. “And I am extremely grateful to the owners where they took a step back, and I think it’s a tremendous reflection of what they truly think too. It’s going to take time. They really do have a tolerance. There is a patience. And as much as it was security for myself, I felt like they made a statement to the marketplace that they’re for real.”
Two years into that contract, the Sixers have rostered 48 players, many of whom the casual NBA fan has never heard of.
Meet the Philadelphia Gypsies backup small forward, Jakarr Sampson. (photo via USA Today, 9/29/15)
The Philadelphia Gypsies will play this season without the injured Joel Embiid (still looking for a Podiatrist he can trust) or Turkish League-delight Dario Saric.
Rhetorical Question: Would you want to keep coaching in the NBA if it meant you never got to see the time and energy you put into developing young players, building trust and a team culture turn into anything?
The Sam Hinkie build-a-bunker-Cold-War experiment goes on…
You wanted to coach in the NBA, Brett Brown? You were tired of being one of 20 assistants in San Antonio? Tired of the Australian League memories? Well here you go, Brett! Take this team of nameless, faceless nomads and try winning 20 games. We’ll tempt you with visions of high lottery picks that never actually play in a game.
At this point, Brett Brown is playing the role of Mr. Holland, without hope of an Opus. Just an unending wave of sadness and empty seats. What a patient man. What a devil that Hinkie is. Despite being the city of brotherly love, Philadelphia is notoriously cruel to its athletes. It’s only fitting the Gypsies play there.
Good luck, JaKarr. One injury to Sir Robert Covington and you’ll be an NBA starter.
Prediction: 16-66, 15th in East, and a copy of Beckett’s Waiting for Godot.
Now that the NBA’s regular season has come to a close, let’s rest our eyes on the East’s playoff teams (while looking at a screen with words on it):
1st seed: Atlanta Hawks (60-22)
The Hawks have been rightfully praised all year for their ball movement and exquisite spacing. I probably read two pieces each week in January and February about one Hawk or another. Kyle Korver-love was overflowing. Al Horford appreciation was everywhere. Mike Budenholzer was given the credit he deserves for instilling an egalitarian, share-the-wealth culture, in which assistants work diligently on player development. Everyone contributes and communicates on defense. However, the questions about the Hawks playoff potential never quite stopped. Korver missed time with a broken nose and the Hawks spacing was more like a wobbly tire than a perfect circle. Paul Millsap’s recent shoulder scare raised another red flag. The Hawks are remarkable for their unity and selflessness, but where will they go in crunch time against a gritty defense? They may never face a gritty defense in the East playoffs. Even if Indiana sneaks into the 8th spot, they have 15 minutes per game from Paul George and have no continuity at the moment.
Other than Milwaukee, the East is full of offensive-based playoff teams.
2nd seed: Cleveland Cavs (53-29)
You may have heard about this team. They play all their games on national television because of a certain player whose first name begins with an “L” and whose last name begins with a “J.” No, Larry Johnson, aka, “Grand-mama” has not come out of retirement. No, Luke Jackson has not been on the Cavs since 2006 (he’s currently on the Idaho Stampede for those NBDL obsessives). Anyway, the Cavs have been lethal since they traded for actual role players (Mozgov doing his best Asik impression, Shumpert defending the wings, and J.R. Smith on his best behavior). Smith is a genuine wild-card, as always. He set an NBA record for most field-goal attempts without attempting a two-point shot (8 of 17, all from deep), in a hard-fought win over Chicago on April 5th. Cleveland-Chicago has the makings of an intriguing second round match-up.
In certain match-ups, watch for Tristan Thompson to grab Kevin Love’s minutes because of his defensive prowess. Love can’t seem to shake the idea that he’s best suited to camp out in the corner on this team. Taking the ball out of the hands of that certain man named whose name begins with “L” and his uniquely skilled (handles!) backcourt mate Kyrie Irving is not happening.
3rd seed: Chicago Bulls (50-32)
Even the sleeping giants in Chicago are more of an offensive force (Pau Gasol and Nikola Mirotic) than they used to be, while their defense has suffered with Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson missing time and last year’s DPOY Joakim Noah looking like he needs a new knee or one of those experimental German blood spinning treatments. The Bulls have faced too many injuries to bother documenting this season. Despite all the depth in the world, the Bulls have been without Rose for huge stretches, Jimmy Butler for most of March, Taj Gibson and Mike Dunleavy for months, and Joakim Noah can’t move the way he used to, post-knee surgery. The Bulls still have enormous potential, with Gasol, Butler, Rose, and Mirotic providing all kinds of offensive possibilities, but roles are not certain and Thibs is ready to bolt for New Orleans after dealing with ongoing front office drama.
4th seed: Toronto Raptors (49-33)
If you watched last year’s playoffs, you had to feel for Kyle Lowry and the fun-loving bunch north of the border. The scenes outside the Air Canada Centre (don’t forget to move that “r” in Canadian spelling) were ecstatic as happy-go-lucky Ontarians jumped with glee for their Raptors. The team came together and home court still mattered. However, one Paul Pierce deflection of a Lowry floater pushed the Nets into the 2nd round.
This year, Toronto sprinted out to a 24-8 start, tops in the East. The caveat: they had yet to face the league’s best teams, they weren’t forced to play much defense yet, and Kyle Lowry was healthy. GM Masai Ujiri wishes the playoffs would’ve started on January 1st. Instead, his team finished 25-25 over their final 50 games.
In a fitting twist of fate, the Raptors will face Pierce again this April, only this time Pierce is a Washington Wizard. The Raptors started off The who played much of the last month without their heart-and-soul point guard Kyle Lowry (back) since March 18th. Lowry returned on April 10 against Orlando. In the two games since, he’s shot 7 of 26 from the field and 1 of 13 from deep. How quickly can he knock off the rust? Will James Johnson’s new Rodman-style look alter game plans?
5th seed: Washington Wizards (46-36)
The John Wall-led Wizards have struggled through losing streaks of three and four games, but seemed to be righting the ship defensively in the last month. Like Wall’s offensive game, the Wizards are brilliant at times, but come with flaws (Wall’s range is impacted by the lack of Trevor Ariza’s three-point shooting). The Wizards expected much more than a two-win improvement on last year’s 44-38 season, but injuries and a lack of depth punished the team, not to mention old legs that can’t keep up with Wall.
Bradley Beal’s absence through the team out of sync for stretches. Few believe the Wizards can get past the second round. The health of Nene and the three-point shooting of Pierce may go a long way in determining if they can get out of the first.
6th seed: Milwaukee Bucks (41-41)
The young Bucks are full of piss and vinegar and long-armed defenders who never stop moving. Giannis, Khris Middleton, Jared Dudley, John Henson, and newly-arrived Michael Carter-Williams provide the blueprint for modern defense. Switching and communicating is more important than ever. Having Inspector Gadget arms makes the whole process easier. The Bucks are a great story and easy to root for. Unfortunately, since they traded Brandon Knight to Phoenix for MCW, their lack of shooting has been even more noticeable. Frankly, they can’t score. They won’t score in the playoffs. I’d say 85 points if Middleton and Dudley are hitting their shots from deep.
Imagine what this team might look like with Larry Sanders anchoring the center spot? Yikes. Jabari Parker has been out since December (late November?) with a torn ACL. Hopefully, he makes his mark next year.
7th seed: Boston Celtics (40-42)
2014-15 Boston Celtics prediction: 40-42. 8th in Eastern Conference. Hip Hip Hooray. #NBASeason#CelticsTalk
Goodness gracious, typing that record feels absurd today, even if I tweeted that back on October 29th. I’m sure if I put any small wager on it, things would’ve turned out differently. This was a 20-33 team, floating tepidly along until the roster churn finally stopped, and they found themselves with Isaiah at the point, and some decent shooting (Jerebko and occasionally Bradley or Olynyk) nearby. The team started playing feisty defense and stopped turning the ball over, thanks in large part to Evan Turner’s surprisingly steady hand. They weathered the storm when Thomas went down with a back injury. Fast-forward a few weeks, and with two games left, they’ve won six of their last seven. They’ve had the leprechaun back on their side, facing a resting Cavs team (Kyrie missed both, LeBron played one half out of the two games). As the final week of the season begins, Brad Stevens’ club sits with a 98.3% chance of making the playoffs.
Many outside observers wondered why the team wanted to make a playoff push. The question: would you rather have a sliver of a chance at a top 3 pick or continue an attempt at restoring a culture of winning among your very young team? In the Eastern Conference, a team on the rise can rise rapidly (Washington Wizards last year). All teams won’t put their fans through what Sam Hinkie has done to his Sixers faithful (how faithful can they be at this point?) and expect long-term success. Rebuilding is always an experiment, so why not rebuild on the fly when you’ve already got an abundance of youth on the roster?
Boston matches up better with Atlanta (who may be dealing with a dinged-up Millsap) than they do with the mighty offensive juggernaut that is the Cleveland Cavs. The Cavs will likely finish off Boston within six games, if I’m allowed green-tinted optimism I’ll say six instead of five. The reductive folks with no rooting interest in Boston will say that winning one or two playoff games is useless in the big picture, but what they fail to recognize is the importance of playing games 65 through 82 on the regular season schedule as well. By beating out the meager Hornets, the deflating Nets (sans Pierce and Garnett), and the Bosh-less Heat, the Celtics youth brigade has undoubtedly gained confidence and experience. One or two potential playoff wins in a series will be the icing on the development cake. I guess if the Cavaliers sweep the Celtics, blowing them out several times that might not taste like some delicious icing, but I’m betting the series won’t end in disaster for Brad Stevens’ club.
8th seed: Brooklyn Nets (38-44)
I don’t have anything to say about the Nets except they spoiled a much more intriguing storyline: Pacers face Hawks in first round rematch of last year’s series. Paul George gave the Pacers a lift and they started winning games and feeling inspired. But Brooklyn got healthy, Brook Lopez remembered he will be a free agent and started dominating, and Deron Williams found some combination of health and inspiration. Now the Nets face Atlanta. I can’t wait for the Hawks to sweep these spoil-sport Nets.
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Quick and Dirty Takes on the First Round:
Darko Index Predicts
(1) Atlanta over (8) Brooklyn in 5 games.
(4) Toronto over (5) Washington in 7 games.
(3) Chicago over (6) Milwaukee in 5 games.
(2) Cleveland over (7) Boston in 6 games.
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Enjoy! The Playoffs Can’t Stop and Won’t Stop. Just like those Pesky Celtics.
The Darko Index 