Thoughts on the NBA’s Conference Finals: LeBron Is Inevitable

If there is one thing I’ve learned about myself while watching the NBA Playoffs over the last five years, it’s that I will inevitably be disappointed. I will be disappointed because I am a fan of the underdog, and the underdog does not beat LeBron James. I will not stop rooting for the underdog. LeBron James will not stop beating underdogs. These are facts.

As a Celtics fan, some of the sweetest moments of the last decade have involved the Celtics beating LeBron. Beating him in Cleveland. The Celtics never conquered LeBron’s Miami Heat, though they came within one game in 2012. The Celtics made their way to the title in 2008 by surviving LeBron’s Cavs in 7 rugged, offensively-challenged games. In only one of those Eastern Conference Semifinals games did either team reach 100 points. Teams were routinely held under 75 points. It was a gruesome affair. The Celtics won. LeBron, who shot 35% from the field over the seven games, had very little help. I bet you can’t name two of the three next-highest scorers for Cleveland in that series. The Celtics shot 42.5% in the series, and 28% from deep. The Cavs shot 41% in the series. 30% from deep. It was all ugly, all the time. And that’s how LeBron lost in 2008. Without any offensive help. I’ll give you a second….

Zydrunas Ilgauskas. 11.9 points.

Delonte West. 11.4 points.

Wally Szczerbiak. 10.7 points.

***

LeBron famously moved on to Miami, where he would have gratuitous amounts of offensive support and much nicer weather. Where Chris Bosh, Mike Miller, and numerous others spread the floor, and where Dwyane Wade helped carry the crunch time load. The Heat were dominant. LeBron was able to wisely conserve his energy in order to play power forward when it was necessary. He transformed his game, became an intimidating post threat and a pinpoint passer. The Eastern Conference landscape shifted dramatically.

Detroit

The Detroit Pistons aged and slowly disintegrated, though not without one last fight in 2008. The Pistons have been free-falling since then. The Josh Smith fiasco. Andre Drummond and Stan Van Gundy better come up with some magical potions soon, or Pistons fans will lose any optimism after two decades of very good to great teams.

Boston

The Boston Celtics rampaged through the East in 2008 and took the title, and came very close to adding another title in 2010. Up three games to two, the Celtics lost Kendrick Perkins, who went down with a knee injury in the first quarter of Game 6. Injuries mounted in 2011 and the team slowly disintegrated, though not without one last glorious fight in 2012. The Celtics took a 3-2 lead in the East Finals, before LeBron’s insane 45-point (19 of 26 from the field) effort squelched any hope of the Celtics returning to the NBA Finals. The Heat built a 13-point halftime lead at TD Garden and didn’t look back. The Celtics kept Game 7 close, before losing steam in the 4th quarter. Game. Set. Match. End of an era in Boston.

Orlando

The Orlando Magic rode Dwight Howard and hot three-point shooting to the Finals in 2009. After winning 59 games in 2008-09, the Magic repeated with 59 more wins the following year. Winning percentage in years since: .634, .561, .244, .280, .305. The Magic began rebuilding in 2012. I think the statue of limitations ends next year. After that, it’s just “rebuilding.”

Chicago

Derrick Rose’s body couldn’t handle the demands of Derrick Rose’s athleticism. After adding Pau Gasol and Nikola Mirotic, and watching Jimmy Butler emerge into a two-way star, the Bulls seemed prime for another run at the title this year. When Kevin Love went down in the first round, things seemed very possible for this Bulls team. A few plays turned their series with Cleveland. LeBron hit a couple of crazy shots. Pau Gasol injured his hamstring. The Bulls pushed the Cavs to six games and then went softly into the night in a forgettable Game 6 meltdown of offensive ineptitude.

***

And now we’re left with the 60-win Atlanta Hawks. A feel-good story all season long. And there’s nothing left to feel good about. Injuries have wiped out the Hawks. First the NYPD broke defensive stopper Thabo Sefolosha’s leg in a nightclub incident. Then Al Horford pinky finger was dislocated at the beginning of the playoffs. Then DeMarre Carroll went down with what looked like a horrific ACL tear, but turned out to be a hyper-extended knee and bone-bruise. Then Kyle Korver’s ankle was broken by the bowling ball known as Cavs guard Matthew Dellavedova.

Of course, the Cavs have been dealing with their own injuries to numerous players. Love’s shoulder. Irving’s ankle issues leading to knee tendinitis. The Cavs depth has surprised most. Depending on Matthew Dellavedova and James Jones was not what GM David Griffin had in mind when dreaming about the playoffs in March.  The injuries to LeBron are visible as well. He just keeps playing. Grimacing and stretching his legs. But LeBron just keeps going. He is inevitable. His team will win again because he makes everyone else so much better and because he is bigger, stronger, faster and hyper-intelligent on the court.

LeBron is 30 years old. For the last five years, the Eastern Conference playoffs have felt inevitable. Unsurprising.

Indiana

In 2013, I jumped on the Pacers in February, admiring their Celtics-style defense and the emergence of Paul George. Heat over Pacers in 7 games. Three of the first six games were grinders. Brutal and close. Game 7: Heat blow out the Pacers by 21.

In 2014, those Pacers started the season 40-11, looking every bit as dominant as a team might look, before slumping to the regular season’s finish line. Slowly, the Pacers pulled themselves together and got back their defensive intensity as the playoffs moved on. They would meet the Heat in an Eastern Conference Finals rematch. After giving the country a ray of hope in a Game 1 win, the Pacers went on to drop Games 2, 3 and 4 in increasingly ugly fashion. They squeaked out a Game 5 win, making the series look respectable, before the avalanche of Game 6 hit them. Miami’s 25-point win gave the Eastern Conference Playoffs a similar final note. Demolition.

The Pacers lost Paul George over the summer to a freak leg injury. Their franchise is now aging and about to disintegrate.

You know the story…

***

LeBron is 30 years old. The Golden State Warriors and their continued mastery of the NBA stand in LeBron’s way. Kyrie Irving’s ankles and knees will rest until Thursday, June 4. Both of the Conference Finals series could end in four game sweeps. We could be waiting for nine days. Game One of the Finals will surely be a sloppy contest, filled with rust and dust. There won’t be a sense of inevitability to the Finals. LeBron and his Cavs will be done with the East. There will be dramatic moments. Steph Curry’s ascension to the top of America’s sporting landscape will continue.

It leaves me with a question, though. How old will I be when the Eastern Conference Playoffs become intriguing again? Will LeBron be 37? A full-time Karl Malone-type of power forward who no longer chases down blocks in the open court? Will LeBron be 40? The best sixth-man in the NBA? Will LeBron retire at age 35, too proud to continue playing after his legs betray him?

For now, LeBron remains close to his peak. Putting up ridiculous numbers, and instilling fear in his opponents. The Hawks are just one team in a long line of them. Hopefully they manage one win before their time is up in these East Finals.

6 Questions for Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals

The Indiana Pacers have done exactly what 99% of the sports media were hoping they could do since last June. They have pushed the Miami Heat into a 6th game in the Eastern Conference Finals. How they did it was probably more intriguing than the fact that they did it. Writers have been examining their supposed corpses as if the scribes were M.E.s and the series were taking place in a morgue. After Game 2’s Pacer meltdown and three convincing Heat wins, few were convinced this series still had a pulse. And yet, Paul George found the rhythm and rode a wave of “green-light” confidence and LeBron James foul-trouble throughout the second half. George, who may now be playing with a clearer head a week after the concussion he suffered in Game 2, simply refused to be denied.

Now the series heads back to Miami for Game 6.

The biggest question: Which Roy Hibbert will we see? If he gets involved early, the Pacers have a real chance to force a Game 7. If not, their offense may grind down to a crawl.

Other than Hibbert’s post-up game, here are some of the most interesting questions heading into Game 6:

1. Will Heat center Chris Anderson play? If he does, this makes the Heat interior defense much stronger, but also allows Roy Hibbert and David West to match-up on defense, rather than keeping an eye on Chris Bosh or Rashard Lewis, both perimeter threats.
2. Can Paul George stay aggressive when the Heat close out harder on him (with LeBron or Wade) and he has to penetrate or pass? Following that thought, will George attack the rim even if the calls aren’t going his way?
3. Will Norris Cole continue to see the bulk of the important minutes over Mario Chalmers? Cole’s on-the-ball defense has been critical in diffusing Stephenson’s pick-and-roll attack. Chalmers has hit several clutch shots over the last few years, which may earn him those 4th quarter minutes.
4. Will Stephenson continue to blow in LeBron’s ear? For all the gossip-drama, Sir Lancelot has succeeded in being a distraction for LeBron as much as anyone outside of 2007-2012 Kevin Garnett, or Kawhi Leonard can succeed in disrupting LeBron. He has taken pressure off of Paul George by checking James. Stephenson and Hibbert absolutely must set the tone for the Pacers with their physicality.
5. Can George Hill’s defensive abilities lead to some easy Pacers transition points? Hill has had moments of defensive brilliance against Miami over the last two years. Both Georges need to cause havoc on the Heat ball movement for Indiana to get out in the open court.
6. Will Wade’s knee cause concern for the Heat? Though some feel this may be overblown, this is the point in the series where Wade’s lingering knee issues could become a weakness. Without LeBron on the court, Wade had to work harder throughout Game 5.

 

Another Reason to Read SB Nation’s Tom Ziller

If you love basketball and you don’t read SB Nation’s Tom Ziller, here’s another reason why you should:

Why does reality apply to LeBron James?

That’s the stirring question raised by basketball theorist Gregg Doyel in his latest commentary on Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals, won by the Indiana Pacers, 93-90. James, the Miami Heat star, had the ball and a two-point deficit with 12 seconds remaining. He set up a potential game-winner for teammate Chris Bosh, but the shot missed and the Heat lost. They will have the opportunity to clinch the series on Friday at home.

Doyel, on the altruism of LeBron and its potential outcomes:

The right play at that moment, final seconds of a potential closeout game to reach the NBA Finals, is for LeBron James to rise up in a show of power and fury and shove the ball through the basket. If Hibbert’s hand or arm is in the way, then Hibbert’s hand or arm gets shoved through the basket, too. Sometimes the right basketball play isn’t an unselfish page clipped neatly from a coach’s manual, but a greedy, hungry, emphatic display of this is my world. […]

[E]nough with the right basketball play. Enough. […] This was LeBron’s moment to ignore the right play and get selfish and get nasty, but LeBron doesn’t have that particular gene. Jordan did, as you know, but LeBron does not — and that’s one of the most unique, even beautiful things about his game. As good as he is, he’s happy to share the ball, even to a fault.

And that finish, that was his fault.

Translated from Doyelese to English:

I am tired of LeBron, the best basketball player in the world, making the right basketball plays. I wish he’d start making the wrong plays more often. Then maybe he wouldn’t be the best player in the world anymore. Because then he’d be making the wrong basketball plays, you see. I prefer to see sports as a morality tale, and so I value aggressive, manhood-waving idiocy over proper decision-making.

Here is a decision flowchart for superstars showing “the right play” based on Doyel’s basketball philosophy.

I must say, Mr. Doyel has intriguing ideas about basketball.

In all seriousness, I had thought the nonsense about LeBron’s mental, psychological and intestinal fortitude had been settled by, you know, his two rings. Guess what? There is a well-documented history of *gasp* Michael Jordan passing to a lesser teammate in a critical moment. LeBron passed to Bosh, a guy on his way to, at the very least, a Hall of Fame debate. Jordan passed to Steve Kerr … in the Finals.

If you’re going to base your current analysis of basketball on some aspect of history, know your freaking history. Use your brain instead of your gut. Make the right sports column play.