The Eastern Conference Swamp Race for 7th and 8th

Our beloved Celtics are now a young team. Stalwarts Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green are in Dallas and Memphis, making waves in the Western Conference playoff race, while the Celtics play better-than-expected basketball in the wake of the two impact trades and about a dozen very small trades since mid-December. A surprise win over the exhausted Atlanta Hawks (Korver and Teague especially) has the Celtics at 20-31, in the thick of things at the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff bracket. The question of whether or not to pursue one of the final two playoff spots (six teams fighting for 7th and 8th seeds) is a legitimate one. The win over Atlanta is bound to give Celtics fans more hope that a 1 vs 8 series versus Atlanta would be competitive. The standings currently look like this:

Eastern Conference Swamp (Fight for 7th and 8th)

Let’s figure this out by sorting through each team.

Charlotte began the year with high hopes and promptly fell on their face, with zero ball movement and Lance Stephenson showing how badly he needs spacing around him to operate with the ball. Since MKG has gotten healthy, their defense has been excellent and they’re eeking out wins over mediocre opponents (many of whom they’ll see in the final two months, as 21 of their final 30 games are against the East. Mo Williams to the rescue, should give them much needed scoring.

Home games left: 13. East games left: 21 Hollinger playoff odds: 34.7%

Miami is a new team since Hassan Whiteside reinvented himself and became the next Tyson Chandler. When the aging Dwyane Wade is healthy, they have a very legit group of four (Bosh, Wade, Deng, and Whiteside). Expect Miami to run off a nice streak and ease in to the 7th spot and feast upon the East.

Home games left: 17. East games left: 21. Hollinger playoff odds: 42.5%

Brooklyn is a cool, if over-priced, place to visit (in the Spring and Fall), but the team is currently a fucking mess. No way they back in to the playoffs, even if Deron Williams finds a way to stay healthy. Time for KG to retire…or get traded to Golden State for one more title run…

Home games left: 16. East games left: 18. Hollinger playoff odds: 21.9%

Boston faces a crucial stretch of winnable road games to start the second-half (Sacramento, Lakers, Phoenix) and then an even-more winnable home game (Knicks). If the Celtics take 3 of 4, the playoff talk will warm. Unfortunately, an equally grueling schedule awaits in March, including five back-to-backs and some tough Western Conference playoff teams. Optimistically, the Celtics can hope to stay afloat for a few weeks, and then play meaningful March games against Indiana, Miami, Brooklyn and Charlotte, as they all claw for positioning. In reality, an 8th or 9th pick in the draft would be better than a 13th pick and a likely early playoff exit. If they stay afloat, the games still mean something in late March, which can only help the young Celtics get real experience. Another caveat: Brandon Bass and Marcus Thornton are on the block, which would diminish their offensive balance.

Home games left: 14. East games left: 21. Hollinger playoff odds: 39.4%

Detroit had their stretch of briliiance after cutting ties with Josh Smith and surrounding their bigs with shooters. Kyle Singler and Anthony Tolliver have never been so valuable. Not to be lost is the presence of Jodie Meeks. Brandon Jennings was having a torrid stretch, moving the ball, and finding pathways to the basket. Brutally for Jennings and Stan Van Gundy, Jennings’ Achilles went out, and Detroit has been forced to move on with D.J. Augustin. Not the same penetrating ability. The Pistons seem as unlikely as Boston to finish 8th, but they may keep it clogged up for a while.

Home games left: 13. East games left: 21. Hollinger playoff odds: 25.6%

Indiana fans have been through some tough times in the last twelve months. A post ASB free-fall last spring, followed by a gritty playoff run. Then Paul George’s freak injury with the U.S. team this summer. The season was considered a lost cause. Fear of impending free agency (David West, Roy Hibbert). What now? Injuries sent them into a tailspin in November. An insane number of injuries. But now here they are, within shouting distance of an 8th seed, and a potential playoff rematch with Atlanta, now the darlings of the Association, secure in their top seeding in the East. Everyone except for Paul George is back and the offense has returned to its mediocre-level with the infusion of shooting from PG George Hill. Rumors of Paul George healing quickly and making a late-March return are intriguing. The schedule is relatively soft, with the Pacers having played 24 of their 32 games against the superior conference. Stranger things have happened. Goran Dragic is rumored to be on the block. The Pacers would suddenly have even more offense. The early March schedule is kind to Indiana, with weak Eastern opponents dotting the landscape. They will need to fatten themselves on those wins, though. Final three games of the season: vs. OKC, vs. WAS, @ MEM. Yikes.

Home games left: 16. East games left: 22. Hollinger playoff odds: 36.8%

Current Standings

HORNETS	22	30	.423	20.0	13-15	9-15	6-4	16-15	Lost 3
HEAT	22	30	.423	20.0	9-15	13-15	3-7	15-16	Lost 1
NETS	21	31	.404	21.0	10-15	11-16	7-5	14-20	Lost 3
CELTICS	20	31	.392	21.5	12-15	8-16	6-4	12-19	Won 1
PISTONS	21	33	.389	22.0	10-18	11-15	4-6	13-18	Lost 1
PACERS	21	33	.389	22.0	11-14	10-19	4-5	14-16	Won 1

Darko Index Predicts

7. Miami Heat 37-45

8. Indiana Pacers 36-46

9. Charlotte Hornets 34-48

10. Boston Celtics 33-49

11. Detroit Pistons 31-51

12. Brooklyn Nets 29-53

24 (Slightly Absurd) NBA Certainties for the 2014-15 Season

The following twenty-four NBA-related events will most certainly occur over the course of the next eight months. 

1. On October 30, Blake Griffin “retaliates” against Serge Ibaka‘s third take-down of the game by blowing him kisses. Later in the game, Glen Davis crushes Ibaka and then pins him to the court in a wrestling maneuver. Davis is suspended for five games, but coach Doc Rivers buys Davis a new Tesla for his troubles.

2. The Minnesota Timberwolves will not be all that exciting in general, but Ricky Rubio to Andrew Wiggins and Rubio to Zach LaVine lob passes will be a nice distraction from the standings. Coach Flip Saunders gives Rubio an ultimatum in mid-November: “Get to the free-throw more or we’ll all start calling you, “Marco.”

3. Milwaukee Bucks coach Jason Kidd comes out of retirement in late-November because he wants to, “Teach Jabari the pick-and-roll.” Jabari Parker continues to pick-and-pop but refuses to “roll.”

4. Golden State Warriors owner Joe Lacob introduces pre-game three-point contests involving Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and new coach Steve Kerr. The Warriors start selling tickets for the pre-game event only.

December

5. Philadelphia 76ers second round pick K.J. McDaniels becomes first NBA player to have a 10 block, 10 turnover game against the downtrodden Orlando Magic.

6. Chicago Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau embraces the fact he finally has a deep bench and plays everyone 25 minutes per game, saving them for the playoffs. Derrick Rose will play the entire season.

7. ESPN.com crashes for several days in mid-December due to advanced metrics malfunctioning and causing panic.

8. In a New Year’s Eve special, longtime TNT commentator Marv Albert has a breakdown. After months of rotating broadcast partners, Albert retires mid-season, forcing Ernie Johnson into an awkward play-by-play role. Back in the studio, Charles Barkley and Shaquille O’Neal won’t listen to Kenny Smith. Shaq keeps shouting, “Barbecued Chicken!” The ratings have never been better.

January

9.  The Boston Celtics take a league-record 53 three-pointers in a game against the Toronto Raptors, including 19 by Jared Sullinger. They make only 7. Sullinger finishes the game with 18 offensive rebounds.

10. LeBron James tells Dion Waiters that Waiters won’t be joining the Cleveland Cavs on their ten-day road trip in January, because he will be enrolled in anger management classes. Coach David Blatt simply nods in the background.

11. ESPN declares they will air every Cavs game from February 1 until the end of the season.

February

12. At the All-Star Break, the NBA announces the details of its new television deal on the salary cap, but the cap number keeps increasing every week, like it does with the Mega Millions. By June, the number is $140 million. Every team will have an inordinate amount of cap space and twelve assistant GMs will quit right before free agency begins in July, 2016.

13. The Houston Rockets beat the Los Angeles Lakers, 104-92. Only two Rockets score points in the game. James Harden gets 58. Dwight Howard scores 46. Kobe Bryant scores 31 points, taking 57 shots, in the least-efficient performance in league history. Lakers guard Jeremy Lin finally complains to the media about Kobe’s selfish ways. Rookie Julius Randle gets a DNP-CD from coach Byron Scott because he accidentally took a corner three-pointer the previous game. Phil Jackson‘s laughter can be heard from coast-to-coast.

14. The Indiana Pacers, who are averaging 64 points per game, trade away Roy Hibbert and David West to the Sacramento Kings for Ben McLemore and a future second-round pick. Larry Bird goes AWOL as soon as the season ends.

15. The Boston Celtics do not trade Rajon Rondo. Bill Simmons yells at Celtics GM Danny Ainge on The Grantland Basketball Hour. At 25-29, the Celtics make a run at the 8th seed in the weak Eastern Conference. In an ironic twist, the Celtics and Nets will fight it out for the final spot.

April

16. The Philadelphia 76ers play a regular season game in which the arena is completely empty. The television commentators leave the booth in protest early in the second quarter. The Sixers forfeit their final five home games, but refuse to refund those tickets to the 43 remaining season ticket holders. Instead, they barter with those fans, hoping to secure second round picks. Sixers GM Sam Hinkie sits down with SI’s Lee Jenkins in April, at the end of the Sixers 6-76 (fitting, isn’t it?) season. The tell-all essay is titled, “Vision 2020.” Sixers fans organize an event where they set fire to a pile of this issue of Sports Illustrated. Joel Embiid is asked to stop using Twitter by commissioner Adam Silver.

17. The Sacramento Kings win 44 games but finish 10th in the Western Conference. Owner Vivek Ranadive petitions for Sacramento to move to the Eastern Conference, but commissioner Silver stops answering Vivek’s texts. A blog is created: http://www.vivekstexts.com

18. The Memphis Grizzlies finish 6th in the West and end up taking the 3rd-seed San Antonio Spurs to Game 7, before losing the final game on two Zach Randolph missed free-throws.

May

19. After much debate, Seattle doesn’t get a franchise but they do get a new Chipotle restaurant.

20. In the middle of the Western Conference Semis between San Antonio and Oklahoma City, Kevin Durant announces he’s moving 5,000 of his closest friends and family to a newly built community outside of Oklahoma City. The rumors that he’s headed to Washington, D.C. persist anyway, because the NBA gossip bubble in the age of Twitter expands like a piece of Bubblicious.

21. The Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets finish 4th and 5th in the East. Paul Pierce and Lance Stephenson become involved in a staring match that lasts for 45 minutes at center court after the final buzzer of Game 1. Whichever team wins the evenly-matched series loses in 5 games to the Bulls in the East Semis.

22. The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers meet in the Western Conference Semis. Steve Kerr and Doc Rivers both agree to do color commentary and let their assistants coach during the second quarter of each game.

23. In the Eastern Conference Finals, the Chicago Bulls beat the Cleveland Cavs in 6 games. Jimmy Butler does such a ridiculous job defending Kyrie Irving (holding him to 13% shooting for the series) that he is named series MVP.

June

24. The Chicago Bulls beat the Los Angeles Clippers in the NBA Finals in 7 games. Five of the games come down to the wire. Chris Paul retires (temporarily) out of frustration. Tom Thibodeau is named MVP, due to the fact that every member of the Bulls contributes roughly the same amount to the wins, and the voting ends in a seven-way tie.

***

6 Questions for Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals

The Indiana Pacers have done exactly what 99% of the sports media were hoping they could do since last June. They have pushed the Miami Heat into a 6th game in the Eastern Conference Finals. How they did it was probably more intriguing than the fact that they did it. Writers have been examining their supposed corpses as if the scribes were M.E.s and the series were taking place in a morgue. After Game 2’s Pacer meltdown and three convincing Heat wins, few were convinced this series still had a pulse. And yet, Paul George found the rhythm and rode a wave of “green-light” confidence and LeBron James foul-trouble throughout the second half. George, who may now be playing with a clearer head a week after the concussion he suffered in Game 2, simply refused to be denied.

Now the series heads back to Miami for Game 6.

The biggest question: Which Roy Hibbert will we see? If he gets involved early, the Pacers have a real chance to force a Game 7. If not, their offense may grind down to a crawl.

Other than Hibbert’s post-up game, here are some of the most interesting questions heading into Game 6:

1. Will Heat center Chris Anderson play? If he does, this makes the Heat interior defense much stronger, but also allows Roy Hibbert and David West to match-up on defense, rather than keeping an eye on Chris Bosh or Rashard Lewis, both perimeter threats.
2. Can Paul George stay aggressive when the Heat close out harder on him (with LeBron or Wade) and he has to penetrate or pass? Following that thought, will George attack the rim even if the calls aren’t going his way?
3. Will Norris Cole continue to see the bulk of the important minutes over Mario Chalmers? Cole’s on-the-ball defense has been critical in diffusing Stephenson’s pick-and-roll attack. Chalmers has hit several clutch shots over the last few years, which may earn him those 4th quarter minutes.
4. Will Stephenson continue to blow in LeBron’s ear? For all the gossip-drama, Sir Lancelot has succeeded in being a distraction for LeBron as much as anyone outside of 2007-2012 Kevin Garnett, or Kawhi Leonard can succeed in disrupting LeBron. He has taken pressure off of Paul George by checking James. Stephenson and Hibbert absolutely must set the tone for the Pacers with their physicality.
5. Can George Hill’s defensive abilities lead to some easy Pacers transition points? Hill has had moments of defensive brilliance against Miami over the last two years. Both Georges need to cause havoc on the Heat ball movement for Indiana to get out in the open court.
6. Will Wade’s knee cause concern for the Heat? Though some feel this may be overblown, this is the point in the series where Wade’s lingering knee issues could become a weakness. Without LeBron on the court, Wade had to work harder throughout Game 5.