Jackie MacMullan, Jeff Van Gundy, Michael Lewis, Daryl Morey and Shane Battier: 2015 Sloan Panel on Innovators & Adopters

The Sloan Sports Analytics Conference still contains great panels, even if the conference has turned into a watered down, mainstream version of what it once was. Here’s a panel that I’m intrigued by. The way the NBA has adopted advanced metrics, deeper scouting, and value. Jeff Van Gundy and Shane Battier and the development of the modern NBA, discussed by intelligent and interesting folks. If you haven’t read Michael Lewis’ seminal piece from February 13, 2009. From the New York Times, Michael Lewis’ “The No-Stats All-Star,” read it now.

Published on Mar 10, 2015

Panel from the 9th MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Friday February 27, 2015, Boston, MA

In his article about Shane Battier in the New York Times, “The No-Stats All-Star,” Michael Lewis states that “each [sport] now supports a subculture of smart people who view it not just as a game to be played but as a problem to be solved.” Battier is one of the innovators of this on the court, where he consistently used analytics data to better his game. Battier, Jeff Van Gundy and Daryl Morey formed a team that used data analysis for the Houston Rockets. The team explored how to take data from complex numbers to meaningful film evaluation to wins on the court. This panel explores how analytics has developed and what the future holds.

24 (Slightly Absurd) NBA Certainties for the 2014-15 Season

The following twenty-four NBA-related events will most certainly occur over the course of the next eight months. 

1. On October 30, Blake Griffin “retaliates” against Serge Ibaka‘s third take-down of the game by blowing him kisses. Later in the game, Glen Davis crushes Ibaka and then pins him to the court in a wrestling maneuver. Davis is suspended for five games, but coach Doc Rivers buys Davis a new Tesla for his troubles.

2. The Minnesota Timberwolves will not be all that exciting in general, but Ricky Rubio to Andrew Wiggins and Rubio to Zach LaVine lob passes will be a nice distraction from the standings. Coach Flip Saunders gives Rubio an ultimatum in mid-November: “Get to the free-throw more or we’ll all start calling you, “Marco.”

3. Milwaukee Bucks coach Jason Kidd comes out of retirement in late-November because he wants to, “Teach Jabari the pick-and-roll.” Jabari Parker continues to pick-and-pop but refuses to “roll.”

4. Golden State Warriors owner Joe Lacob introduces pre-game three-point contests involving Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and new coach Steve Kerr. The Warriors start selling tickets for the pre-game event only.

December

5. Philadelphia 76ers second round pick K.J. McDaniels becomes first NBA player to have a 10 block, 10 turnover game against the downtrodden Orlando Magic.

6. Chicago Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau embraces the fact he finally has a deep bench and plays everyone 25 minutes per game, saving them for the playoffs. Derrick Rose will play the entire season.

7. ESPN.com crashes for several days in mid-December due to advanced metrics malfunctioning and causing panic.

8. In a New Year’s Eve special, longtime TNT commentator Marv Albert has a breakdown. After months of rotating broadcast partners, Albert retires mid-season, forcing Ernie Johnson into an awkward play-by-play role. Back in the studio, Charles Barkley and Shaquille O’Neal won’t listen to Kenny Smith. Shaq keeps shouting, “Barbecued Chicken!” The ratings have never been better.

January

9.  The Boston Celtics take a league-record 53 three-pointers in a game against the Toronto Raptors, including 19 by Jared Sullinger. They make only 7. Sullinger finishes the game with 18 offensive rebounds.

10. LeBron James tells Dion Waiters that Waiters won’t be joining the Cleveland Cavs on their ten-day road trip in January, because he will be enrolled in anger management classes. Coach David Blatt simply nods in the background.

11. ESPN declares they will air every Cavs game from February 1 until the end of the season.

February

12. At the All-Star Break, the NBA announces the details of its new television deal on the salary cap, but the cap number keeps increasing every week, like it does with the Mega Millions. By June, the number is $140 million. Every team will have an inordinate amount of cap space and twelve assistant GMs will quit right before free agency begins in July, 2016.

13. The Houston Rockets beat the Los Angeles Lakers, 104-92. Only two Rockets score points in the game. James Harden gets 58. Dwight Howard scores 46. Kobe Bryant scores 31 points, taking 57 shots, in the least-efficient performance in league history. Lakers guard Jeremy Lin finally complains to the media about Kobe’s selfish ways. Rookie Julius Randle gets a DNP-CD from coach Byron Scott because he accidentally took a corner three-pointer the previous game. Phil Jackson‘s laughter can be heard from coast-to-coast.

14. The Indiana Pacers, who are averaging 64 points per game, trade away Roy Hibbert and David West to the Sacramento Kings for Ben McLemore and a future second-round pick. Larry Bird goes AWOL as soon as the season ends.

15. The Boston Celtics do not trade Rajon Rondo. Bill Simmons yells at Celtics GM Danny Ainge on The Grantland Basketball Hour. At 25-29, the Celtics make a run at the 8th seed in the weak Eastern Conference. In an ironic twist, the Celtics and Nets will fight it out for the final spot.

April

16. The Philadelphia 76ers play a regular season game in which the arena is completely empty. The television commentators leave the booth in protest early in the second quarter. The Sixers forfeit their final five home games, but refuse to refund those tickets to the 43 remaining season ticket holders. Instead, they barter with those fans, hoping to secure second round picks. Sixers GM Sam Hinkie sits down with SI’s Lee Jenkins in April, at the end of the Sixers 6-76 (fitting, isn’t it?) season. The tell-all essay is titled, “Vision 2020.” Sixers fans organize an event where they set fire to a pile of this issue of Sports Illustrated. Joel Embiid is asked to stop using Twitter by commissioner Adam Silver.

17. The Sacramento Kings win 44 games but finish 10th in the Western Conference. Owner Vivek Ranadive petitions for Sacramento to move to the Eastern Conference, but commissioner Silver stops answering Vivek’s texts. A blog is created: http://www.vivekstexts.com

18. The Memphis Grizzlies finish 6th in the West and end up taking the 3rd-seed San Antonio Spurs to Game 7, before losing the final game on two Zach Randolph missed free-throws.

May

19. After much debate, Seattle doesn’t get a franchise but they do get a new Chipotle restaurant.

20. In the middle of the Western Conference Semis between San Antonio and Oklahoma City, Kevin Durant announces he’s moving 5,000 of his closest friends and family to a newly built community outside of Oklahoma City. The rumors that he’s headed to Washington, D.C. persist anyway, because the NBA gossip bubble in the age of Twitter expands like a piece of Bubblicious.

21. The Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets finish 4th and 5th in the East. Paul Pierce and Lance Stephenson become involved in a staring match that lasts for 45 minutes at center court after the final buzzer of Game 1. Whichever team wins the evenly-matched series loses in 5 games to the Bulls in the East Semis.

22. The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers meet in the Western Conference Semis. Steve Kerr and Doc Rivers both agree to do color commentary and let their assistants coach during the second quarter of each game.

23. In the Eastern Conference Finals, the Chicago Bulls beat the Cleveland Cavs in 6 games. Jimmy Butler does such a ridiculous job defending Kyrie Irving (holding him to 13% shooting for the series) that he is named series MVP.

June

24. The Chicago Bulls beat the Los Angeles Clippers in the NBA Finals in 7 games. Five of the games come down to the wire. Chris Paul retires (temporarily) out of frustration. Tom Thibodeau is named MVP, due to the fact that every member of the Bulls contributes roughly the same amount to the wins, and the voting ends in a seven-way tie.

***

To Seek Asik or Not to Seek Asik?

Rumors are swirling around Boston, Philadelphia and Houston.  Omer Asik (ah-SHEEK) and his lane-clogging abilities are up for sale.  The Boston Celtics have assets, in the form of Brandon Bass, Jeff Green, Courtney Lee, and as many first round picks as the eye can see. Daryl Morey likes assets and desperately needs a power forward who hit an open jump shot.  Daryl Morey also likes operating ahead of the curve, which is why he has given the other 29 NBA teams a deadline by which Asik will be traded.

What does Morey want? Preferably a stretch four who can also defend reasonably well.  Brandon Bass meets those qualifications. In fact, he exceeds them.  Bass defends most power forwards and many small forwards exceptionally well.  His one-on-one defense against Carmelo Anthony in the first round of last year’s playoffs made Anthony look like Rudy Gay.  Jeff Green’s name has been thrown around, but Danny Ainge knows better. Like more and more NBA teams these days, the Celtics don’t have a center.  They have an assortment of small forwards and power forwards.  More importantly, the Celtics don’t have a legitimate nuisance in the lane.  On the other hand, Asik is essentially a useless offensive player.  He is adequate at rolling to the hoop, and occasionally dunking the ball. This current version of the Celtics is playing solid defense, and is beating mediocre NBA competition (although the defense has not been tested by the better offenses in the NBA, yet).  The deal currently swirling in the ether involves Bass, Lee, and a first round pick for Asik.

***

Under contract

Brandon Bass: through 2014-15, $6.9 million

Courtney Lee: through 2015-16, $5.4 million in 14-15, $5.6 million in 15-16

Omer Asik: through 2014-15, $15 million (but only $8.4 million towards the salary cap–Morey’s sleuth contract maneuver). How much is Asik worth?  That is the $8.4 million-dollar question, that even Zach Lowe can’t sufficiently answer.

***

Potential contract extensions

Avery Bradley: will need a new deal starting in the summer of 2015.

Jordan Crawford: will need a new deal starting in the summer of 2015.

Moving Lee off the books in 2015 will help enable Ainge to extend Bradley and Crawford.

***

The Questions

 

Who is Omer Asik?

He came to the Bulls in 2010 after playing in his native Turkey from 2005-2010.  Under the tutelage of defensive wizard Tom Thibodeau and the uber-physical Joakim Noah, Asik became an unheralded reserve force.  Daryl Morey noticed and gave Asik a very smart, back-loaded contract.  He was a deal.  Last year, Asik provided exactly what Morey hoped.  A defensive presence and a ton of rebounds (11.7 in only 30 mpg).  When Morey secured Dwight Howard, Asik became expendable.  When it became obvious Asik felt demoralized by his future prospects with Howard (he’ll be a free-agent after 2014-15), he wanted out.  One interesting tidbit: Asik was only 6 feet tall at age 17.  He grew eight inches in one summer.  This seems impossible, but it has been reported, so it must be fact.

Does Asik make the Celtics better this year?

Yes.  Despite his inability to shoot, Asik gives them a legitimate defensive force (protecting the rim and rebounding on both ends) which will allow the optimistic C’s fans to dream about the potential of a five-man-group involving Asik-Sullinger-Green-Bradley-Rondo and turns the Celtics into something of a potential playoff contender in the Leastern Conference. This assumes a few uncertainties will happen: 1) Sullinger and Bradley continue to show their development throughout the year; 2) Rondo is able to return at something resembling full strength by April; 3) Asik and Rondo are able to integrate themselves into Stevens’ system smoothly; and 4) The rest of the Leastern Conference teams not named Indiana and Miami will remain questionable.

My guess is that Sullinger will have some struggles against the better defensive big men who he has yet to face.  Bradley’s mid-range game seems legitimate, but might be hampered by Rondo’s return (Crawford has turned into a serious 3-point threat, whereas Rondo is not).  Rondo will probably be eased back in (no back-to-backs) and may not be at full-strength or may not be completely confident in his new knee by March/April.  Asik and Rondo are smart enough to figure out their roles on defense. The Leastern Conference will see Atlanta, Brooklyn, Detroit, Washington and New York (if Chandler returns to full health) all improve and gain cohesion as the season progresses.  With all of these things in mind, and the number of prospects that will be available in the June draft…

Should the Celtics be looking to make the playoffs this year?

I don’t know.  In October, I was convinced that the long-term plan meant to build through this draft.  It’s so easy to fast-forward into the prospect possibilities.  Imagine the 2016-17 Celtics with then 22 year-old Joel Embiid (Kansas) doing his best Hakeem impression or then 23 year-old Willie Cauley-Stein (Kentucky) running the floor and blocking shots like Philadelphia hopes a healthy Nerlens Noel might. Compare those possibilities with a potentially costly 30 year-old Omer Asik.  The thing about looking too far ahead is that you lose sight of all the uncertainties and unknowns.  Will Rajon Rondo age well?  He’ll turn 30 in February, 2016.  Will Sullinger’s back problems be a distant memory or a painful reminder of the risk that came with drafting him in the first place?  The unknowns are many.  The certainties are few.  What we know: Brad Stevens will be the coach.

There is a balance between the present and the future.  In valuing the present tense and the consistent winning atmosphere that may arise with this young core, adding Asik may be more important.  There will certainly be other big men with potential that arise out of nowhere.  Andre Drummond, profiled excellently by Jonathan Abrams, was labeled a bust after his one year at UConn, but is now likely to become a fixture in Detroit’s paint for the next ten years. One aspect that I return to: free-agents do not generally choose Boston.  Building through the draft and trades is Ainge’s best bet.  There are enough analytics-oriented teams that need a paint-clogger that the market for Asik in the summer of 2015 will be competitive.  The history of 7-footers not aging well in the NBA is daunting.  It would certainly be fun to see that Celtics win a playoff series this year, but could they really hope to contend with Indiana or Miami with such a limited offense?  Nope.

Would they be looking at Asik as a 2-month rental (flip him to a contender at the deadline), a 16-month rental (let it play out) or would they hope to re-sign him?

This is an interesting question.  Would other contending teams be more likely to trade for Asik after two months of a motivated and defensively dominant big man?  Maybe.  Portland may be getting more serious about its hope to battle the Spurs, Thunder, Rockets, Clippers and Warriors in the fight for home court in the West.  The question of whether or not to re-sign him in 2015 is dependent on more of those uncertainties.

How much is Asik worth?

Enough for us to consider all of these questions.  Enough for me to get NBA League Pass immediately and start watching every minute of every Celtics game again.  But not enough to guarantee anything.