24 (Slightly Absurd) NBA Certainties for the 2014-15 Season

The following twenty-four NBA-related events will most certainly occur over the course of the next eight months. 

1. On October 30, Blake Griffin “retaliates” against Serge Ibaka‘s third take-down of the game by blowing him kisses. Later in the game, Glen Davis crushes Ibaka and then pins him to the court in a wrestling maneuver. Davis is suspended for five games, but coach Doc Rivers buys Davis a new Tesla for his troubles.

2. The Minnesota Timberwolves will not be all that exciting in general, but Ricky Rubio to Andrew Wiggins and Rubio to Zach LaVine lob passes will be a nice distraction from the standings. Coach Flip Saunders gives Rubio an ultimatum in mid-November: “Get to the free-throw more or we’ll all start calling you, “Marco.”

3. Milwaukee Bucks coach Jason Kidd comes out of retirement in late-November because he wants to, “Teach Jabari the pick-and-roll.” Jabari Parker continues to pick-and-pop but refuses to “roll.”

4. Golden State Warriors owner Joe Lacob introduces pre-game three-point contests involving Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and new coach Steve Kerr. The Warriors start selling tickets for the pre-game event only.

December

5. Philadelphia 76ers second round pick K.J. McDaniels becomes first NBA player to have a 10 block, 10 turnover game against the downtrodden Orlando Magic.

6. Chicago Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau embraces the fact he finally has a deep bench and plays everyone 25 minutes per game, saving them for the playoffs. Derrick Rose will play the entire season.

7. ESPN.com crashes for several days in mid-December due to advanced metrics malfunctioning and causing panic.

8. In a New Year’s Eve special, longtime TNT commentator Marv Albert has a breakdown. After months of rotating broadcast partners, Albert retires mid-season, forcing Ernie Johnson into an awkward play-by-play role. Back in the studio, Charles Barkley and Shaquille O’Neal won’t listen to Kenny Smith. Shaq keeps shouting, “Barbecued Chicken!” The ratings have never been better.

January

9.  The Boston Celtics take a league-record 53 three-pointers in a game against the Toronto Raptors, including 19 by Jared Sullinger. They make only 7. Sullinger finishes the game with 18 offensive rebounds.

10. LeBron James tells Dion Waiters that Waiters won’t be joining the Cleveland Cavs on their ten-day road trip in January, because he will be enrolled in anger management classes. Coach David Blatt simply nods in the background.

11. ESPN declares they will air every Cavs game from February 1 until the end of the season.

February

12. At the All-Star Break, the NBA announces the details of its new television deal on the salary cap, but the cap number keeps increasing every week, like it does with the Mega Millions. By June, the number is $140 million. Every team will have an inordinate amount of cap space and twelve assistant GMs will quit right before free agency begins in July, 2016.

13. The Houston Rockets beat the Los Angeles Lakers, 104-92. Only two Rockets score points in the game. James Harden gets 58. Dwight Howard scores 46. Kobe Bryant scores 31 points, taking 57 shots, in the least-efficient performance in league history. Lakers guard Jeremy Lin finally complains to the media about Kobe’s selfish ways. Rookie Julius Randle gets a DNP-CD from coach Byron Scott because he accidentally took a corner three-pointer the previous game. Phil Jackson‘s laughter can be heard from coast-to-coast.

14. The Indiana Pacers, who are averaging 64 points per game, trade away Roy Hibbert and David West to the Sacramento Kings for Ben McLemore and a future second-round pick. Larry Bird goes AWOL as soon as the season ends.

15. The Boston Celtics do not trade Rajon Rondo. Bill Simmons yells at Celtics GM Danny Ainge on The Grantland Basketball Hour. At 25-29, the Celtics make a run at the 8th seed in the weak Eastern Conference. In an ironic twist, the Celtics and Nets will fight it out for the final spot.

April

16. The Philadelphia 76ers play a regular season game in which the arena is completely empty. The television commentators leave the booth in protest early in the second quarter. The Sixers forfeit their final five home games, but refuse to refund those tickets to the 43 remaining season ticket holders. Instead, they barter with those fans, hoping to secure second round picks. Sixers GM Sam Hinkie sits down with SI’s Lee Jenkins in April, at the end of the Sixers 6-76 (fitting, isn’t it?) season. The tell-all essay is titled, “Vision 2020.” Sixers fans organize an event where they set fire to a pile of this issue of Sports Illustrated. Joel Embiid is asked to stop using Twitter by commissioner Adam Silver.

17. The Sacramento Kings win 44 games but finish 10th in the Western Conference. Owner Vivek Ranadive petitions for Sacramento to move to the Eastern Conference, but commissioner Silver stops answering Vivek’s texts. A blog is created: http://www.vivekstexts.com

18. The Memphis Grizzlies finish 6th in the West and end up taking the 3rd-seed San Antonio Spurs to Game 7, before losing the final game on two Zach Randolph missed free-throws.

May

19. After much debate, Seattle doesn’t get a franchise but they do get a new Chipotle restaurant.

20. In the middle of the Western Conference Semis between San Antonio and Oklahoma City, Kevin Durant announces he’s moving 5,000 of his closest friends and family to a newly built community outside of Oklahoma City. The rumors that he’s headed to Washington, D.C. persist anyway, because the NBA gossip bubble in the age of Twitter expands like a piece of Bubblicious.

21. The Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets finish 4th and 5th in the East. Paul Pierce and Lance Stephenson become involved in a staring match that lasts for 45 minutes at center court after the final buzzer of Game 1. Whichever team wins the evenly-matched series loses in 5 games to the Bulls in the East Semis.

22. The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers meet in the Western Conference Semis. Steve Kerr and Doc Rivers both agree to do color commentary and let their assistants coach during the second quarter of each game.

23. In the Eastern Conference Finals, the Chicago Bulls beat the Cleveland Cavs in 6 games. Jimmy Butler does such a ridiculous job defending Kyrie Irving (holding him to 13% shooting for the series) that he is named series MVP.

June

24. The Chicago Bulls beat the Los Angeles Clippers in the NBA Finals in 7 games. Five of the games come down to the wire. Chris Paul retires (temporarily) out of frustration. Tom Thibodeau is named MVP, due to the fact that every member of the Bulls contributes roughly the same amount to the wins, and the voting ends in a seven-way tie.

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Ping-Pong Balls: The 2014 NBA Draft Lottery, Utopian Visions and Paths Paved With Gold

The NBA Draft Lottery is tonight. Professional hoops fans from 14 cities will be eagerly anticipating the dropping of ping-pong balls from a device that looks like this (you can’t see the long plastic tube that shoots the enormous array of ping-pong balls into this smaller plastic device):

Ping-pong balls and Utopian visions of the future.

 

The device used for the Selective Service Draft (1972, Vietnam War) looked like this:

A plexiglass drum containing capsules with birth dates and orders of assignments for men born in 1953 at the beginning of the fourth annual Selective Service lottery Feb. 2. (Charles W. Harrity / AP)

 

As a fan of the Boston Celtics, (10.3% chance of winning the lottery, currently 5th pick if all goes according to odds–which it never does), the day of the draft lottery was a date I made myself aware of in early November, when it was seemingly guaranteed that the Celtics had started the 2013-14 season with an eye on the 2014-15 season. As in, let’s get us some ping-pong balls while Rajon Rondo rehabilitates his knee and we figure out what we have here.

As we head into the fateful lottery night, the Celtics have the following odds:

• 33% chance of landing a top-3 pick,
• 57% chance of landing a top-5 pick,
• 91.5% chance of landing a top 6 pick.
• If three extreme long-shots all win the lottery (close to the actual odds of you, kind reader, winning the Mega Millions), then the Celtics could wind up with the 7th or 8th pick.

The Milwaukee Bucks, owners of a 15-67 regular season mark, have the greatest odds of winning the lottery (25%). Even if the Bucks get the worst of the ping-pong ball bounces, they will end up with the 4th pick. Milwaukee has a 46.5% chance of a top 2 pick, and a 64.3% chance of a top 3 pick. When you think about it, in most drafts, that’s far from guaranteeing a franchise-changing player. Of course, Greg Oden and Darko Milicic were thought to be franchise-changing players. Nothing is guaranteed, especially when you’re talking about 7-footers.

Still, this is the moment that devotees of the Bucks, Sixers, Magic, Jazz, Celtics and Lakers have been waiting for since the holiday season. This is their holiday season. Here are a few future paths (paved with gold and mostly unrealistic expectations) for the likely Top 7-8 picks in this year’s 2014 Draft. It’s both perfectly understandable and totally insane. A fan-base hopes for someone to come along and save the day. The rare patient fan waits at least a year to judge that high lottery pick. Everyone else waits two weeks. Remember Simmons talking about Michael Carter-Williams as if he were the next future All-Star, franchise-changing player? That was two weeks (and 6 games) into the season. Now MCW waits for help. But this year is supposed to be different. We’re supposed to believe that these top 5-6 players have that higher-level within them. Potential…

• The Utopian Visions of Andrew Wiggins as a 25 year-old, dominating both sides of the ball like Paul George with an even better vertical leap? Can he develop the range on his jumper in one year? Two years? Four years?
• The wide frame and scoring stability of Jabari Parker, instantly giving an offense a go-to, possibly post-up option. Can Parker become the next hybrid power forward? A poor man’s LeBron, with elite passing skills?
• The idealistic dream of Joel Embiid (em-BEED) anchoring the center position as a young Hakeem Ojajuwon (Embiid the Dream?). Shot-blocking and rebounding with that kind of footwork is rare.
• The perfect possibilities of Dante Exum running an up-tempo offense and harrassing opposing guards like Shaun Livingston with his reach. Can Exum reach the heights of Penny Hardaway? With his height (6’6″) and his passing, the ceiling is high.
• And let’s not forget dynamic young big men Noah Vonleh and Aaron Gordon, both who show incredible promise and versatility. Vonleh is something of a mystery and his measurements (wingspan, hands, standing reach) have front offices excited. Who wouldn’t want a taller version of Kawhi Leonard (not that anyone will ever be a taller version of the impossibly unique Kawhi)? In the 2011 Draft, the Spurs were delighted to see 14 teams didn’t want him. It appears that front offices are much more aware of physical gifts and long-term planning than they were in 2011, though. Vonleh has the proverbial “high ceiling,” but his one year at Indiana was less-than-outstanding.
• Aaron Gordon can jump through the roof and he’s 6’9″. The Shawn Marion comparisons have begun.
• Marcus Smart has similar abilities to Tyreke Evans, a do-everything wizard with a desire and nose for the ball. The “character issues” that trail him are insulting. Yes, there will be NBA fans taunting him, but only in the Deep South and in college hoops will he hear the N-word. Instead of talking about the larger problem, it’s easier for scouts and pundits to label Smart with having “character issues.” On the other hand, watching him play, he plays with such force and drive, that he must learn to contain that energy within an NBA offense. A better jump-shot would also help.
• Julius Randle would have been a top-5 pick in 1995, 2000, or 2005. Instead, the back-to-the-basket power forward is no longer viewed as a threat to crack the top-5. Turning his ankle in an agility drill didn’t help his draft stock. Such a minor thing, but it’s those “big stage” moments that alter a player’s reputation. If he can’t knock down a 15-footer, he’s a lot less valuable than he might have been a decade ago. Randle seems capable of inhaling rebounds and providing something of a post-game. A comparison that is being tossed around is Zach Randolph, who learned to hit that elbow jumper with regularity, which made his post-moves that much more effective. Time will tell.

The ping-pong balls will bounce. The order will be set. And then we will wait another month until the actual draft. Teams will make trades. Kevin Love may be headed to the Bay Area, or Chicago, or Boston. The order is set in clay instead of concrete. The future begins tonight. And then tomorrow night, and the night after, and the night after.

Hooray for Utopias.

My Celtics Dreams…

I’m envisioning Rondo and Exum, with Avery Bradley as a lock-down 6th man…

I’m thinking of playoff games in May of 2016, when the Heat have been dismantled, the Pacers are getting old, and the Wizards are at the top. Who guards Bradley Beal? Dante Exum. Now for that shot-blocker….

 

 

 

Required Reading for Celtics Fans – November 20, 2013

Paul Flannery’s profile of Danny Ainge for Boston Magazine.

“Back to the Drawing Board,”  Pierce? Gone. Garnett? Adios. Doc Rivers? See ya. Danny Ainge spent the summer blowing up his team, and now it’s up to the cocksure Celtics boss to figure out how to return the franchise to glory. With a new season starting and everything uncertain, at least one thing is clear: We’re about to find out if Ainge is as smart as he thinks he is.

http://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/article/2013/10/29/danny-ainge-boston-celtics/print/

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Chris Forsberg on trade rumors

“Navigating Rumor Season,” Cliff Notes: Rondo isn’t going anywhere anytime soon and it’s basically absurd that the rumors have started because the Shumpert and Stoudemire for Rondo is a joke.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4708441/navigating-rumor-season

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CelticsHub on coping with the Celtics’ season, comparing the low-expectations-Celtics to the high-expectation-Knicks

http://celticshub.com/2013/11/20/dealing-with-this-season-it-could-be-worse-see-the-knicks/

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Chad Ford, excerpted from ESPN Insider, on the early reports of potential number 1 picks in the NBA Draft :

1. Andrew Wiggins, SG, Fr., Kansas Jayhawks (17 votes)

Wiggins has been experiencing a backlash of sorts over the past few months. Reports that he was the third-best player in Kansas’ practices combined with growing concerns that he might not have the killer drive or skill set to dominate right away began floating around. Typically, teams want a player with the No. 1 pick who can make an immediate impact on the floor. Was Wiggins really the guy?

He’s really destabilized the doubters in his first three games for the Jayhawks. Not only does Wiggins look the part physically and athletically, his performance on the court has been absolutely stellar. Through Monday, Wiggins is averaging 19 PPG, 5.5 RPG and shooting 58 percent from the field.

2. Julius Randle, PF, Fr., Kentucky Wildcats (10 votes)

Randle became Wiggins’ strongest challenger this summer after scouts walked out of the Nike Hoop Summit and Kentucky practices blown away. Randle has kept the momentum going, averaging 20.5 points, 14.3 rebounds on 62 percent shooting in his first four games.

He’s the prototypical NBA 4 — blessed with size, strength, athleticism and an offensive arsenal of tools that allow him to score from anywhere on the floor. Combine that with Randle’s amped-up demeanor and his demand to touch the ball every time down the floor and there’s just so much to get excited about.

3. Jabari Parker, SF, Fr., Duke University (9 votes)

As a junior, it was Parker who was supposed to be the consensus No. 1 pick in the draft. But an injury after his junior year combined with Wiggins having a stellar summer and reclassifying led to a bit of a Jabari fallout. Scouts questioned whether he had a position in the NBA. As he struggled to get back into shape, scouts wondered aloud if he had the athleticism to be an elite player. He led all U.S. scorers at the Nike Hoop Summit with 22 points, but was just 1-for-9 from 3.

Three weeks into the season, the bandwagon is starting to get really crowded again. Parker has just wowed, averaging 22.8 PPG, 8.2 RPG and shooting nearly 60 percent from the field and almost 67 percent from 3-point range in four games. His amazing 27-point performance against Kansas (especially that 19-point first half) caused the scouts in the NBA to rethink their position on Parker.

4. Dante Exum, PG, Australia (3 votes)

Don’t forget about Exum. This summer, he was the apple of every NBA scout’s eye and was really the first guy to get buzz as a possible contender to Wiggins’ hold on the No. 1 pick. It started with a stellar performance off the bench for the World Team at the Nike Hoop Summit and then carried over to a riveting performance in the FIBA Under-19 Championships.

What NBA scouts saw in Exum was a 6-foot-6 guard who could play the 1 and the 2 and seemingly had the perfect blend of athleticism and skill. He is very quick with the ball and gets to the rim pretty effortlessly. His jump shot is still a work in progress, but that might be the only real weakness in his game.

Unfortunately for Exum, he can’t compete on the same stage with Wiggins, Randle and Parker. He’s finishing up high school in Australia in December and after that he has some pretty big decisions to make. Sources say that Exum and his family are leaning strongly toward him skipping college and declaring for the 2014 draft.