Warriors Advance to NBA Finals as Rockets Overheat in Oakland…and the Mercurial Josh Smith

Riley Curry is getting some ice cream tonight! The long-starved Dub Nation (40 year wait in between Finals appearances) will roar on the national stage at least four more times. The well-balanced Golden State Warriors will face the top-heavy Cleveland Cavs in the NBA Finals starting on Thursday, June 4. They advanced because of that balance. A balance the Rockets (and most other teams) lack. We will wait for a week while injured body parts attempt to heal. Kyrie’s knee, ankles, and feet will be a topic. Dellevadova’s questionable (he’s over the borderline, in my view) antics will be debated. Klay Thompson took a Trevor Ariza MMA-style knee to the side of his head. The next few days may be foggy for Klay. Who knows how many Advils Steph Curry has chomped since he landed on the back of his shoulder and neck, and his head met the Houston hardwood to the horror of every Bay Area human with a hoops interest.

Andre Iguodala’s lockdown defense helped silence the harmonies of James Harden, before he took a disgustingly obvious and intentional forearm shiver to the neck by Dwight Howard, but…it’s all over with now. Iguodala came to the Bay Area for a chance to make a deep playoff run. He iced the series by icing Harden.

Cavs in 4 games over the wounded Hawks after surviving the Bulls. Warriors in 5 over the enigmatic Rockets, after surviving the Grizzlies.

Many will blame James Harden and his historic Game 5 turnover bonanza (a baker’s dozen). Harden was indeed awful in Games 3 and 5. On the other hand, Harden was downright masterful in Games 1, 2, and 4. There is no middle ground with Harden. The Houston offense is so entirely Harden-based, there is no margin for error. LeBron will need the balance of Kyrie creating off the bounce for the Cavs to have any hope against Golden State in the Finals.

I kept thinking of Josh Smith, and how he may be the true Karma Chameleon (he comes and goes…he comes and go—-oh oh—ohs). One of the more tumultuous individual year’s in NBA history started in Detroit for Josh Smith. Incredibly, the former near-All-Star was cut by the Pistons because he can’t hit from deep (career: 28.5%). After Houston signed Smith, he played significantly better, including shooting a reasonable 63-191 (33%). Though 35-40% is closer to ideal, power forwards who can hit 33% are useful. As many fully grasp, three-pointers are 1.5x as valuable as twos. This means 33.3% from deep is equivalent to 50% from inside the arc. Effective field-goal percentage is a more useful statistic these days than overall field-goal percentage, as threes are more common than ever.

Here are Josh Smith’s (J-Smoove) not-so-smooth playoff splits, starting with the Rockets-Clippers series (Dallas wasn’t playing anything close to playoff-level defense, so we can’t count those numbers).

The numbers listed below are: field goals made, field goals attempted, three-pointers made, three-pointers attempted, points, and effective field-goal % (adjusts for increased value of three-pointers)

vs LAC

Wins

Gm 2: FG: 3-9, 3-PT: 0-1, 8 pts

Gm 5: FG: 4-7, 3-PT: 1-3, 9 pts

Gm 6: FG: 5-9, 3-PT: 4-7, 19 pts

Gm 7: FG: 6-10, 3-PT: 2-4, 15 pts

Total (wins):

FG: 18-35 (51.4%), 3-PT: 7-15 (46.6%), 12.8 ppg (20.4 minutes/game)

Effective FG%: 21.5-35 (61.4%)

Losses

Gm 1: FG: 3-12, 3-PT: 1-5, 9 pts (blowout)

Gm 3: FG: 3-10, 3-PT: 0-3, 7 pts (blowout)

Gm 4: FG: 0-2, 3-PT: 0-0, 1 pt (blowout)

Total (losses):

6-24 (25%), 3-PT: 1-8 (12.5%), 5.7 ppg (18.7 minutes/game)

Effective FG%: 6.5-24 (27%)

vs Golden State

Win

Gm 4: FG: 7-8, 3-PT: 3-4, 20 pts

Effective FG%: 8.5-8 (over 100%, he broke the stat!)

Losses

Gm 1: FG: 6-16, 3-PT: 2-6, 17 pts (Gm 1 was a nail-biting, 4-pt loss for HOU)

Gm 2: FG: 5-17, 3-PT: 0-3, 10 pts

(Harden brilliant, one might argue Smith lost them any hope of winning this series with this shooting performance)

Gm 3: FG: 6-14, 3-PT: 3-5, 16 pts

(Exception, Smith was very good in a blowout loss, however, he only had 6 at half (HOU was down 62-37)

Gm 5: FG: 3-14, 3-PT: 2-7, 11 pts

Total (losses):

FG: 20-61 (32.8%), 3-PT: 7-21 (33.3%), 13.5 ppg (24 minutes/game)

Effective FG%: 23.5-61 (38.5%)

***

Of course it’s not all on Josh Smith. If Donatas Motiejunas wasn’t out for the season, his 37% three-point shooting would have taken some of the pressure off of Harden as well. If Patrick Beverley’s wrist wasn’t broken, he would have made life much more difficult for Steph Curry than the way, way, way past-his-prime Jason Terry was able to.

Smith didn’t lose those three playoff games against the Clippers and these four playoff games against the Warriors…didn’t lose them by himself. He lost them with his teammates, led by Harden’s offense and Howard’s defense. There were other significant role players (Ariza, Brewer, Jones), but none were as up-and-down and as pivotal as Smith. When an offense lives and dies with one player, those three-pointers have to go down. When they don’t, that coveted “stretch four” isn’t so stretchy, and that’s part of why the turnovers piled up…not enough spacing.

The Warriors were the better team and should have won this series. If a few things go differently in Game 2, we would be talking about Game 6. Instead, the Rockets were demolished in embarrassing fashion in Game 3, Steph Curry’s accident in Game 4, and Game 5 was never in doubt in the 4th quarter. This summer, the Rockets have to decide which Josh Smith is the real Josh Smith, a question still haunting fans in Atlanta and in Detroit.

Golden State moves on…draining threes with regularity…sharing the wealth…trusting in the extra pass. Draymond Green is their version of Smith…a younger, more physical force with an entirely more assertive personality…but without nearly the leaping or shot-blocking ability of Smith. Green will be taking those threes from the top of the key after Curry gets trapped at half-court. The Warriors will need just enough of them to find the bottom of the net to finish this improbably glorious season. Fortunately for Golden State, they will have four or five other three-point shooters (most of whom are also excellent defenders) who will find open looks. That’s the beauty of having Steph Curry and a balanced attack.

Conference Semis, Game 1: Bulls Take Cavs, Clippers throttle dazed Rockets (Jimmy Butler, Blake Griffin and Psychology)

Chicago Bulls 99, Cleveland Cavs 92

Jimmy Motherfucking Butler. LeBron can huff and LeBron can puff but LeBron can’t blow Jimmy Butler’s house in. Jimmy Butler. Jimmy Butler. Jimmy Butler.

Mike Dunleavy decided to imitate Klay Thompson to open the game, hitting three from deep that splashed cleanly through before the Cavs knew which way to turn. Bulls 21, Cavs 7. Dunleavy smoking.

As expected, Cleveland knocked the rust off and jumped back into the game in the second quarter, but never got over the hump. Rose, Gasol and Butler counter-punched throughout. After the Cavs tied things up to start the third, the Bulls rampaged and that vaunted Cavs defense (oh wait, they aren’t known for their defense) couldn’t stop a 15-0 run. Bulls 68, Cavs 53.

Kyrie Irving single-handedly (or should I say ambidextrously?) kept the Cavs within range early in the 4th, crossing every which way and finishing with his trademark spinning lay-ups (reminiscent of peak Tony Parker).

As the Bulls bench (Brooks, Hinrich, and Dunleavy) floundered, the Cavs pulled to within 3 (83-80) with 8:30 remaining.

Thibodeau came back with his starting crew, the defense picked up, while LeBron and Kyrie were forced into desperation heaves from beyond 25 feet. Jimmy Butler. Jimmy Butler, and Jimmy Butler.

And one big jumper from Pau and Rose to ice the cake.

Los Angeles Clippers 117, Houston Rockets 101

Wow. No Chris Paul, and no energy from Houston. The Rockets were brutal. McHale’s coaching interview mentioned being “stuck in the mud.” The Rockets may as well have played without sneakers, because there was no ball movement, no cutting, no sharp screens, and no hustle outside of Dwight Howard (22 / 10 / 5 blocks) and Trevor Ariza.

Austin Rivers didn’t have to replace Chris Paul, so much as hit a few corner three-pointers, play decent defense and try not to turn the ball over when it was actually in his hands.

Blake was Superman while Dwight Howard was left on an Island by his teammates

Blake Griffin (26 points, 8-10 free-throws / 14 boards / 13 assists) was spectacular in distributing again, as he has been throughout the playoffs, with the exception of a few late-game lapses against San Antonio. Griffin and the surprising Matt Barnes (20 points on 11 shots! / 4 steals / 2 blocks) more than rose to the occasion as the Rockets looked shocked that they weren’t blowing the CP3-less Clippers out.

Here’s a question that goes beyond Xs and Os but to the heart of the difference between these two teams: one of them has incredible talent as well as heart, while the other has swagger and talent.

Is Kevin McHale to blame for the Rockets playing with such little motivation? Or is it impossible to keep the fire lit in the bellies of James Harden (6 free-throw attempts and 9 turnovers) and Josh Smith (3 of 12 and only 5 boards in 29 minutes)?

PSYCH 101

This was a psychological test for Houston, and they failed miserably.

Why was it psychological?

1. No Chris Paul for the Clippers invites a let down from the opponent.

2. Gear Shift. Dallas defense is much like regular season defense. Houston barely turned the ball over against such sad attempts at deterrence. The way the Clippers have been playing defense is nothing like what they faced for the first five games of the playoffs. This was like driving on a flat, straight country road and suddenly facing rush hour traffic in mid-town Manhattan. In the second-half, once the Clippers found their second wind (remember, they just finished a brutal 7-game series with the Spurs and were without Chris Paul), the Rockets simply couldn’t match them. They were not mentally ready.

Kevin McHale has always seemed like a nice guy. I like Kevin McHale. He let his team get too high on themselves. It was a problem on Monday. Wednesday will be different, but the home court they worked for all season is gone.

Third quarter scoring: Clippers 37, Houston 27 (Blake Griffin collects 6 dimes)

Fourth quarter scoring: Clippers 34, Houston 24 (Blake Griffin with 4 more assists)

In the second round of the playoffs, well-rested, playing at home, against a team that was without it’s maestro at the point, the Rockets gave up 71 points in the second half. Wow. Blake Griffin as distributor. Austin Rivers and Matt Barnes filling in. Unexpected.

The Eastern Conference Swamp Race for 7th and 8th

Our beloved Celtics are now a young team. Stalwarts Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green are in Dallas and Memphis, making waves in the Western Conference playoff race, while the Celtics play better-than-expected basketball in the wake of the two impact trades and about a dozen very small trades since mid-December. A surprise win over the exhausted Atlanta Hawks (Korver and Teague especially) has the Celtics at 20-31, in the thick of things at the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff bracket. The question of whether or not to pursue one of the final two playoff spots (six teams fighting for 7th and 8th seeds) is a legitimate one. The win over Atlanta is bound to give Celtics fans more hope that a 1 vs 8 series versus Atlanta would be competitive. The standings currently look like this:

Eastern Conference Swamp (Fight for 7th and 8th)

Let’s figure this out by sorting through each team.

Charlotte began the year with high hopes and promptly fell on their face, with zero ball movement and Lance Stephenson showing how badly he needs spacing around him to operate with the ball. Since MKG has gotten healthy, their defense has been excellent and they’re eeking out wins over mediocre opponents (many of whom they’ll see in the final two months, as 21 of their final 30 games are against the East. Mo Williams to the rescue, should give them much needed scoring.

Home games left: 13. East games left: 21 Hollinger playoff odds: 34.7%

Miami is a new team since Hassan Whiteside reinvented himself and became the next Tyson Chandler. When the aging Dwyane Wade is healthy, they have a very legit group of four (Bosh, Wade, Deng, and Whiteside). Expect Miami to run off a nice streak and ease in to the 7th spot and feast upon the East.

Home games left: 17. East games left: 21. Hollinger playoff odds: 42.5%

Brooklyn is a cool, if over-priced, place to visit (in the Spring and Fall), but the team is currently a fucking mess. No way they back in to the playoffs, even if Deron Williams finds a way to stay healthy. Time for KG to retire…or get traded to Golden State for one more title run…

Home games left: 16. East games left: 18. Hollinger playoff odds: 21.9%

Boston faces a crucial stretch of winnable road games to start the second-half (Sacramento, Lakers, Phoenix) and then an even-more winnable home game (Knicks). If the Celtics take 3 of 4, the playoff talk will warm. Unfortunately, an equally grueling schedule awaits in March, including five back-to-backs and some tough Western Conference playoff teams. Optimistically, the Celtics can hope to stay afloat for a few weeks, and then play meaningful March games against Indiana, Miami, Brooklyn and Charlotte, as they all claw for positioning. In reality, an 8th or 9th pick in the draft would be better than a 13th pick and a likely early playoff exit. If they stay afloat, the games still mean something in late March, which can only help the young Celtics get real experience. Another caveat: Brandon Bass and Marcus Thornton are on the block, which would diminish their offensive balance.

Home games left: 14. East games left: 21. Hollinger playoff odds: 39.4%

Detroit had their stretch of briliiance after cutting ties with Josh Smith and surrounding their bigs with shooters. Kyle Singler and Anthony Tolliver have never been so valuable. Not to be lost is the presence of Jodie Meeks. Brandon Jennings was having a torrid stretch, moving the ball, and finding pathways to the basket. Brutally for Jennings and Stan Van Gundy, Jennings’ Achilles went out, and Detroit has been forced to move on with D.J. Augustin. Not the same penetrating ability. The Pistons seem as unlikely as Boston to finish 8th, but they may keep it clogged up for a while.

Home games left: 13. East games left: 21. Hollinger playoff odds: 25.6%

Indiana fans have been through some tough times in the last twelve months. A post ASB free-fall last spring, followed by a gritty playoff run. Then Paul George’s freak injury with the U.S. team this summer. The season was considered a lost cause. Fear of impending free agency (David West, Roy Hibbert). What now? Injuries sent them into a tailspin in November. An insane number of injuries. But now here they are, within shouting distance of an 8th seed, and a potential playoff rematch with Atlanta, now the darlings of the Association, secure in their top seeding in the East. Everyone except for Paul George is back and the offense has returned to its mediocre-level with the infusion of shooting from PG George Hill. Rumors of Paul George healing quickly and making a late-March return are intriguing. The schedule is relatively soft, with the Pacers having played 24 of their 32 games against the superior conference. Stranger things have happened. Goran Dragic is rumored to be on the block. The Pacers would suddenly have even more offense. The early March schedule is kind to Indiana, with weak Eastern opponents dotting the landscape. They will need to fatten themselves on those wins, though. Final three games of the season: vs. OKC, vs. WAS, @ MEM. Yikes.

Home games left: 16. East games left: 22. Hollinger playoff odds: 36.8%

Current Standings

HORNETS	22	30	.423	20.0	13-15	9-15	6-4	16-15	Lost 3
HEAT	22	30	.423	20.0	9-15	13-15	3-7	15-16	Lost 1
NETS	21	31	.404	21.0	10-15	11-16	7-5	14-20	Lost 3
CELTICS	20	31	.392	21.5	12-15	8-16	6-4	12-19	Won 1
PISTONS	21	33	.389	22.0	10-18	11-15	4-6	13-18	Lost 1
PACERS	21	33	.389	22.0	11-14	10-19	4-5	14-16	Won 1

Darko Index Predicts

7. Miami Heat 37-45

8. Indiana Pacers 36-46

9. Charlotte Hornets 34-48

10. Boston Celtics 33-49

11. Detroit Pistons 31-51

12. Brooklyn Nets 29-53